Talk:Typhoon Haiyan: Difference between revisions

Strongest ever

On cnn it said this hit 195 mph. Typhoon tip the previous record holder was 190. wtf.--150.216.254.206 (talk) 08:49, 8 November 2013 (UTC)

Wind speeds yes but not pressure. Although, an unofficial Dvorak estimation made by NOAA put Haiyan's min pressure at 862 hPa but that number is suspect as the official RSMC for the Western Pacific is the JMA. IrfanFaiz 14:10, 8 November 2013 (UTC)

In 1934 storm winds of 231 mph (372 kph) were recorded. The record should be qualified against non tropical storms, perhaps. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 101.171.170.151 (talk) 14:39, 8 November 2013 (UTC)

While this storm may have had winds greater than Tip (the JTWC kept the maximum winds at 190 mph), the deciding factor for comparing storm intensity is central pressure. Officially, the JMA (the official warning center for the region) had Haiyan's lowest air pressure as being 895 hPa which is higher than Tip. — Iune(talk) 17:37, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

What's a super typhoon? Is it a formally recognised term?

The lead says this is "fifth super typhoon" of the season. The term is sourced in the article to an example of somebody else's seemingly rather informal usage seven years ago. I'm always cautious about using terms with "super" in them. They're often over-hyped journalistic nonsense. Love to see a source to the WMO or similar. HiLo48 (talk) 01:20, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

I was just being lazy with the reference about what it is. I'll source it to NOAA at some point. Either way, a "super typhoon" is a category used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to classify typhoons with winds of 150mph or higher. They use the term in their warnings so it's not a hyped thing at all, unlike what happened with Sandy. However, the context of it quickly becomes lost in the world of media... Cyclonebiskit (talk) 01:30, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Good. I still wish they wouldn't use the word "super". It's not very scientific on its own. HiLo48 (talk) 01:35, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

It's been used by Joint Typhoon Warning Center since 1969 at least, so although it may not be scientific, it's certainly historical. --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 01:39, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

I don't see why "super" sounds unscientific. Despite its superficial (pun intended) connection to superman and superwoman, the prefix is used in lots of scientific contexts like "Supernova" and "Superconductivity". I'm fine with it. --Ahyangyi (talk) 11:27, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Wording question

I see the words 'packing wind speed of' - I don't know for sure but I guess 'packing' is not a technical term, but I'm not certain, so I've not removed it, it seems like this ought to say 'with a wind speed of' EdwardLane (talk) 10:16, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Storm surge

There appears to have been a huge storm surge in Tacloban. Tacloban airport is devastated. There were waves and storm sure up to the height of the second story. Death toll is climbing. Currently estimates are about 1000 in Tacloban and 200 in Samar. Clearly these estimates are conservative, and very initial estimates. The final figures will be much higher.

There is no power throughout Leyte and Samar. Local officials are saying that it may be a month before power is resumed. The mobile phones started working in Samar about 8PM on the Saturday night. The storm surge is not uniform everywhere. There was no significant storm surge at Catbalogan. Residents are being told to keep an eye on the sea levels. Sources, CNN, BBC, local contacts.

Thepigdog (talk) 16:11, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

I originally read that the storm surge was 3 meters (10 feet) in Tacloban, but now I cant find a satisfactory reference. I found the prediction of 5.2 meters, which referenced the NOAH site. Also there are sites estimating huge waves but video footage shows the storm surge as quite calm. So it is difficult to get a clear picture of what happened. Hopefully a clearer picture will emerge.

Thepigdog (talk) 04:33, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

I remind people of the severe destruction in Tacloban city. This is a real place, with real people. I have been there. My understanding is that poor squatter areas in low lying areas of Tacloban city have been completely washed away. I expect the death toll in the Philippines to be 20,000 people. And we may never know how many people are just washed away, unknown, never recorded. But we must wait until the media says anything before we can document what we know happened. The media is biased, not by intent but by the need to make money for private companies. The media has already lost interest in Haiyan and the story is only starting to emerge, Everyone knows about Cyclone Katrina, but that may turn out to be a picnic compared with Haiyan. We know the media is only interested in sensationalism and making money. Yet the wiki rules only allow us to document what happened, if vested interests document it first. There is a lack of courage here. If people write what is not true, aren't there people available to correct and review it? Is this really what we want the Wikipedia to be? I think there is spirit in the wiki that is better than that. We all want the truth recorded in the Wikipedia, but I believe that the best way to achieve this is through open debate, without fixed rules. It used to be that if you wanted to know about the truth of something just assert the opposite on a wiki, and wait for the corrections. Of course references are good, but they should not be mandatory.

Thepigdog (talk) 08:48, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Re: Debate over the link of Typhoon Haiyan and climate change

I find it comical that this section of the article is named in part "Debate" and yet it includes only one guy from a university making some kind of generalized observation. There needs to be a contrasting point of view offered or else this section should be deleted. It takes two to tango. --Sephiroth9611 (talk) 17:55, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Also, I think this narrow-scoped article is not a good place for a general discussion of climate and storms. Sepsinato (talk) 18:31, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

• While it is true that it is impossible to definitively link any specific weather related event to climate change, this is now being reported as the most powerful typhoon to make land-fall in recorded history (to be verified). However, the point is that while the total number of typhoons per year are not increasing, the average strength of the ones that do happen each year are increasing very significantly. It is, therefore, appropriate to note this trend within the article with links to pages on the predicted impacts of climate change. Some laypersons may wish to dispute this, but it is not within the remit of Wikipedia to censor such information.
  

Enquire (talk) 03:44, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

I do wish to note that the "increase in intensity" is grossly misrepresented by all media. They don't specify the amount of increase, which is actually relatively small and unnoticeable with our current technology. Tropical cyclones are reported with wind speeds to the nearest 5 knots, and the change is roughly 1-2 knots. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 03:55, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

• Grossly misrepresented? How can you argue that sustained winds of 315 km/h (195 mph), with gusts up to 380 km/h (235 mph ... more than four times the highway speed limit in the USA) is either small or unnoticeable by any standard, even compared to other typhoons? It is still early, but already the indications are that there are over 10,000 dead. With due respect, this is not a trivial event, even for the Philippines which has considerable experience with typhoons, but this is on a larger scale and much later in the season than they are accustomed to. For reference, see:
  

• National Geographic: Supertyphoon Haiyan: Why Monster Storm Is So Unusual (2013-11-08)
  
• Washington Post: Super typhoon Haiyan strikes Philippines, among strongest storms ever (2013-11-07)
  

Enquire (talk) 10:02, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Refer to the end of my comments "...the change is roughly 1-2 knots." With a storm like Haiyan, we can, at most, attribute maybe 3 (4 is pushing it) knots of its intensity to climate change. This would account for 1.7% of its overall intensity (using the JTWC data), a value that makes zero difference in the damage it caused. I have a nasty pet peeve with climate change claims and tropical cyclones since our reliable records for these storms only go back into the 1960s. Prior to that, data becomes shaky. When you go back before 1851, there are no databases for tropical cyclones worldwide. We simply just don't have enough data to substantiate a connection between climate change and tropical cyclones. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 10:52, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

As for "this is on a larger scale and much later in the season than they are accustomed to." Typhoon season is year-round so they occur at any time. For example, Typhoon Bopha last year struck Mindanao as a Category 5 in early December, a month later than Haiyan. 2006 featured three consecutive major landfalls in the country in from late October through early December. I could honestly keep going, but it's a waste of time. The media likes to exaggerate things. I'm not trying to downplay the severity of this storm, but it's not wholly unprecedented. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 10:56, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

• No, its not wholly unprecidented, you are correct. However, it is likely to be confirmed as the largest typhoon in recorded history (yes, the jury is still out, but this is a probable outcome). However, it is not just any single storm that matters here, it is the pattern of storms during a year. I think it is generally agreed that the number of such cyclone like storms has not increased significantly, but the distribution of storm severity has. So while it is impossible or irresponsible to associate any single storm, including this one, to climate change; it is important to note that the pattern of increasing severity of storms is exactly what climate change models predict.

Enquire (talk) 11:17, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

I don't think we'll ever get confirmation on its true intensity. No reconnaissance planes were flown into the storm and most weather stations lost power before its arrival or were destroyed. Data in the worst of the storm most likely doesn't exist. All we have to go off is satellite estimates. Additionally, this storm doesn't even rank in the top ten in terms of most intense according to the official RSMC data (the Japan Meteorological Agency). Whatever the case may be with that, I don't think it's necessary to mention seasonal changes within a storm article. Information like that is more appropriate for the 2013 Pacific typhoon season article. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 11:32, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

I found the following two references in mainstream media. I can't at present find any mention of climate change or global warming in the article text, but it is clearly in this context being discussed by reliable secondary sources. The second ref below starts, "The Philippines government has firmly connected the super typhoon Haiyan with climate change..."

• Typhoon Haiyan and climate change Q&A
• Typhoon Haiyan: Philippines urges action to resolve climate talks deadlock

--Nigelj (talk) 16:31, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Requested move

Typhoon Haiyan → Typhoon Haiyan (2013) – Like all other storms with main articles or articles, they have titles ending with a year. I noticed that our title is Typhoon Haiyan not Typhoon Haiyan 2013. We need to rename this with a year with an end or leave it like this until November 13. Typhoon2013 (talk) 19:16, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Why? This is clearly the most notable Typhoon Haiyan. The one in 2001 caused minor damage, and the one in 2007 didn't even affect land. This Haiyan is far and above the most notable of the name, and with the potential to be among the costliest and deadliest Philippine typhoons, I think its status as most notable Haiyan is well-assured. See WP:PRIMARYTOPIC. --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 19:21, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

It's very likely Haiyan as well as Yolanda will be retired. The other storms named Haiyan are insignificant compared to this. --IrfanFaiz 23:26, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

• Oppose move per WP:UCN. We have a link at the top of the page to the disambiguation page if someone is looking for a different Typhoon Haiyan. Compare, for example, with Hurricane Katrina. VQuakr (talk) 05:38, 10 November 2013 (UTC)
• Oppose per VQuakr. --BDD (talk) 17:44, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Updates

This articles needs some. It is sadly underdeveloped compared to, say, hurricanes Katrina or sandy at this stage. The Philippine Red Cross is estimating 1,200 dead.[1] "National Risk Reduction and Management Council said more tha sn 70,000 families were affected, and nearly 350,000 people were displaced..." Rmhermen (talk) 20:39, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Our systemic bias guarantees that, despite its severity, this storm won't receive as much attention from the bulk of our editors as storms impacting the USA. But give it time. There's enough editors here with a global view of things to eventually make this the great article it deserves to be. And do remember that we have no deadlines. HiLo48 (talk) 21:56, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Fatalities in infobox

I'm not sure whether the first infobox should be present or the "current" template takes precedence. But shouldn't there be a clear indication of how many fatalities have occurred in the infobox? 8ty3hree (talk) 21:41, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Once the storm dissipates, the normal infobox will replace it and have the fatalities listed. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 23:10, 9 November 2013 (UTC)

Separate article for the effects of Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines

I think we can create a better article on the effects of the typhoon in the Philippines if we will create a separate and thorough article f it. What do you think guys? I was thinking of making separate sections for the different provinces affected by the typhoon and much more other sections needed like effects on agriculture, health, economy, water and electric supply. Also we could also add a separate section for relief operations. All the needed article needed for the article.--AR E N Z O Y 1 6A•t a l k• 14:20, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Feel free to add info here, especially with regards to the relief operations (which would be considered aftermath). If there gets to be too much info here, then we can split off, but the article is still relatively short. --♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 14:23, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Hurricanes and Typhoons

Aren't hurricanes and typhoons the same thing? I think this could also be called Hurricane Haiyan. 15:13, 10 November 2013 (UTC) — Preceding unsigned comment added by N92413 (talk • contribs)

Yes they are the same thing and this article could be called Hurricane Haiyan, but its most commonly known as Typhoon Haiyan.Jason Rees (talk) 15:39, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Read this at the Cyclone Wikipedia article: "In the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone is generally referred to as a hurricane (from the name of the ancient Central American deity of wind, Huracan), a cyclone in the Indian Ocean and parts of the Pacific, and a typhoon in the Northwest Pacific region."--AR E N Z O Y 1 6A•t a l k• 15:58, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

It should also bd noted that even North American media uses typhoon when discussing this storm so its unlikey that this stotm is best known as Hurricane Haiyan anywhere.--70.49.81.26 (talk) 18:21, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

195MPH winds unofficial?

Right now there are references that state the storm did have winds of 195MPH the question though is has this been confirmed? - Knowledgekid87 (talk) 23:40, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

Those winds are based on satellite estimates and will likely never be confirmed due to a lack of measurements. That said, this comes from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center which is not the official Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for the Western Pacific so the estimates are technically unofficial to begin with. The Japan Meteorological Agency is the official agency for the basin so their winds, albeit estimates as well, are considered official for the basin. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 23:43, 10 November 2013 (UTC)

So if it is misleading the info should not be in the infobox. - Knowledgekid87 (talk) 13:03, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

It was never misleading. He just said it wasn't official and may never be confirmed. Unless.. the US navy and the JMA can afford flying to the typhoon with hurricane hunter aircraft. If that ever happens, it is confirmed, but we'll never know about Haiyan or any other typhoons' winds before the time that happens, because most estimates are satellite estimates. ItsPaide (talk) 15:49, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

The confusion comes from JTWC's use of 1-minute winds vs. JMA and PAGASA's use of 10-min sustained wind speeds (the latter of which would place the storm as a category four at peak strength. JMA says it was the strongest storm they have ever tracked)[2]. ~AH1 ^(discuss!) 18:03, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Taiwan?

How would the storm pass over the north of Taiwan? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Metastasis d (talk • contribs) 00:59, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Intense tropical cyclones tend to produce large waves that can affect areas as far as 1,000 miles away from their center. It's a regular occurrence for Taiwan to be impacted by waves from a typhoon over the Philippines. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 01:12, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

The original paragraph stated that the hurricane passed over the north, but it has been fixed. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Metastasis d (talk • contribs) 03:19, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Still lots of pending increases in death toll yet to be reported

"Officials had yet to make contact with Guiuan, a town of 40,000 that was first hit by the typhoon. Baco, a city of 35,000 people in Oriental Mindoro province, was 80 percent under water, the U.N. said."[3]

Also, please see [4] showing massive destruction and widespread dead bodies in cities supposedly outside of even the 40 MPH wind range. There are dozens of 25,000+ cities inside that band, on the coast where the 20 foot storm surge and flash floods hit simultaneously. I think we should at least put in some wording in that there is likely a much larger death toll than can possibly be reported at present. 210.13.83.18 (talk) 06:12, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

No crystal balling, please. I'm sure there will be reliable sources very quickly after information becomes available.--Yeti Hunter (talk) 08:20, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

If you trust the media enough then the Philippine Government via the NDRMMC, are about to report a big jump to 1774 deaths from 255.Jason Rees (talk) 15:09, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

In which case, the total is at least 1,795 in all affected regions (including 13 in Vietnam and 8 in Taiwan). Somebody needs to do updating in the interwikis too, as soon as the official NDRMMC counts are published. ~AH1 ^(discuss!) 18:02, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Infobox for casualities and damages

I think it would be better if someone will create an infobox tabulating all the casualties from all the countries. Same goes with the table for the damages. --AR E N Z O Y 1 6A•t a l k• 15:44, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

I was thinking about that earlier, but I'm not sure.. ItsPaide (talk) 15:51, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

Lets wait and see the impact come in from China etc.Jason Rees (talk) 16:08, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

I was thinking of something like this. Note in the table that there is a tabulation per province too since most of the countries use this political subdivision (Taiwan use county).--AR E N Z O Y 1 6A•t a l k• 16:18, 11 November 2013 (UTC)

According to Jeffrey Masters, the "official" death toll is 1,774[5]. I have used the most conservative up-to-date estimate in the Main Infobox, which should be left up there unless there are actually two different Philippine agencies responsible for counting the casualty toll. The Associated Press reports "officially" 942 dead in the Philippines, so I have given the total as 963+, but have not changed the infobox in the body text. ~AH1 ^(discuss!) 17:59, 11 November 2013 (UTC)