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1980 United States presidential election in New York: Difference between revisions

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New York weighed in for this election as more [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] than the national average by about 7%.
 
This election is notable in that while the highly populated regions of [[New York City]], [[Buffalo, New York|Buffalo]], and [[Albany, New York|Albany]] turned out for Carter, and the sparsely populated upstate counties turned out for Reagan, the election in the state was tipped by the downstate suburban counties around NYC, which were won by Reagan. Most notably, Reagan won in the [[Long Island]] suburban counties of [[Nassau County, New York|Nassau]] and [[Suffolk County, New York|Suffolk]] by bigger vote number margins than in all of the counties that Carter won in the state except [[Manhattan]]. Carter actually picked up plurality wins in two counties in the state which he had lost in [[1976 United States presidential election in New York|1976]] to [[Gerald Ford]]: namely [[Monroe County, New York|Monroe County]], home to the city of [[Rochester, New York|Rochester]] (thereby making Reagan the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying this county), and [[Niagara County, New York|Niagara County]]. Despite these two county gains by Carter, it wasn't enough for him to win the state, primarily due to a combination of Reagan's big winning margins in the densely populated suburban counties of Nassau and Suffolk, as well as the lower Carter's winning margin in New York City being 11 percentage points lower compared to 1976.
 
A major contributing factor to Reagan's victory over Carter was the relatively strong [[Third party (United States)|third party]] showing by [[Independent politician|independent]] candidate [[John B. Anderson]], a former [[Liberalism in the United States|liberal]] Republican congressman who garnered 7.54% of the vote in the State – nearly twice the 4% margin by which Carter had won New York in 1976. Running on the ballot line of New York's [[Liberal Party of New York|Liberal Party]], Anderson attracted the votes of many liberals and moderates who normally leaned Democratic but were dissatisfied with the policies of the Carter Administration, and with [[Rockefeller Republican]]s who viewed Reagan as too far to the right, thus splitting the left-leaning vote in New York State.
 
In the heavily populated, and very liberal, [[Boroughs of New York City|five boroughs]] of [[New York City]], Carter still won overall, and Reagan made only modest gains in vote share over Gerald Ford's 1976 showing of 33%, with Reagan taking 37% in NYC in 1980. While Carter still won in 4 of the 5 boroughs, Carter bled considerable support in New York City to Anderson, with Carter's NYC vote percentage dropping from 6766% in 1976 to only 55% in 1980. Since Democratic victories in New York State in that era depended on running up massive margins in New York City to overcome the rest of the state's Republican lean, the reduced vote number margin in New York City from vote-splitting would prove fatal to Carter's chances in 1980. While Reagan only bled about 1% off Republican base support in the state (winning a plurality in a 3-way-race with 46.66% while Gerald Ford had lost the state in a two-man race with 47.52% in 1976), Carter bled 8% off his 1976 support, falling from a 51.95% majority win in 1976 to a losing 43.99% in 1980, with most of these lost Democratic base votes going to Anderson instead.
 
This remains the last election in which a Republican presidential nominee has won traditionally rock-ribbed GOP [[Tompkins County, New York|Tompkins County]] in upstate New York, home to the college town of [[Ithaca, New York|Ithaca]], where [[Cornell University]] and [[Ithaca College]] are located.<ref name="how">Sullivan, Robert David; [http://www.americamagazine.org/content/unconventional-wisdom/how-red-and-blue-map-evolved-over-past-century ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’]; ''America Magazine'' in ''The National Catholic Review''; June 29, 2016</ref> At this point, Tompkins County had gone Democratic since [[American Civil War|the Civil War]] only in the landslides of [[1912 United States presidential election in New York|1912]] and [[1964 United States presidential election in New York|1964]],<ref name="Geography261265">Menendez, Albert J.; ''The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004'', pp. 261-265 {{ISBN|0786422173}}</ref> with [[Franklin D. Roosevelt|FDR]] never topping 40%. Reagan narrowly won the county with a plurality of 42% to Carter's 40%, while Anderson took nearly 14%, making it Anderson's strongest county in the state. 4 years later in [[1984 United States presidential election in New York|1984]], Tompkins County would vote against Reagan and in the following years it would become the most Democratic county in upstate New York, giving [[Barack Obama]] over 70% of the vote in [[2008 United States presidential election in New York|2008]].