[go: nahoru, domu]

Climate endgame: Difference between revisions

Content deleted Content added
Added tags to the page using Page Curation (undue weight)
Addition of previous (to August 2022) warnings about climate endgame
Line 3:
[[File:Lick Fire on the Umatilla National Forest burning at night.jpg|alt=Forest fire|thumb|380x380px|Forest fire at Umatilla National Forest. Extreme forest fires are caused by climate change, and they unleash effects (more {{CO2}} into the air, more heat...) which may make the situation even worse.]]
 
'''Climate endgame''' is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse<ref name="Carrington">{{cite news |last1=Carrington |first1=Damian |title=Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’ |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/01/climate-endgame-risk-human-extinction-scientists-global-heating-catastrophe |access-date=11 August 2022 |work=The Guardian |date=1 August 2022}}</ref> due to [[effects of climate change]]. The real chance of happening is considered small,<ref name="Carrington" /> but thesethe experts who warned most resoundingly (whichin August 2022) about this danger want to make public this worst-case scenario to improve risk management, "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy”.<ref name="Carrington" /> These experts belong to the [[Centre for the Study of Existential Risk]], a research centre at the [[University of Cambridge]]).<ref name="Kraus">{{cite news |last1=Kraus |first1=Tina |last2=Lee |first2=Ian |title=Scientists say the world needs to think about a worst-case "climate endgame" |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-endgame-extreme-weather |access-date=11 August 2022 |work=CBS News |date=3 August 2022}}</ref> want to warn about this worst-case scenario to improve risk management, "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy”.<ref name="Carrington" />
 
Other scientists had previously warned about this hypothesis, but they found less echo. For example, the fifth assessment of the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] (April 2021),<ref>{{cite news |last1=O'Malley |first1=Nick |title=Facing the climate ‘endgame’ in a world bound for 1.5 degrees warming |url=https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/facing-the-climate-endgame-in-a-world-bound-for-1-5-degrees-warming-20210414-p57j8j.html#:~:text=The%20report%20finds%20%E2%80%9Cmultiple%20lines,rate%20of%20sea%20levels%20rising. |access-date=30 August 2022 |work=The Sydney Morning Herald |date=15 April 2021}}</ref> or John van der Velden and Rob White in their book ''The Extinction Curve'' (January 2021).<ref>{{cite web |title=The Extinction Curve: Growth and Globalisation in the Climate Endgame |url=https://www.amazon.es/Extinction-Curve-Globalisation-Climate-Endgame/dp/1800438273 |website=Amazon |access-date=30 August 2022}}</ref>
 
This fear is somewhat analogous to [[nuclear winter]],<ref name="Carrington" /> a worst-case possibility which was broadly studied and analysed during the [[Cold War]]. It could also be seen as a manifestation of [[eco-anxiety]].
Line 9 ⟶ 11:
The collapse would come through four factors: famine (crop loss, [[drought]]), [[extreme weather]] ([[hurricane]]s, [[flood]]s), war (caused by the scarce resources) and disease.<ref name="Carrington" />
 
These scientists, aThe team of international experts led by Cambridge University,<ref name="Kraus" /> also warn about [[Tipping points in the climate system|tipping point]]s: small rises in global temperature which result in big changes in the climate.<ref name="Carrington" /> These tipping points could trigger others in a cascade ([[domino effect]]),<ref name="Carrington" /> in a non-linear way, which makes their effects hard to estimate. [[Unintended consequences]] (knock-on effects) could also unleash.<ref name="Carrington" /> These findings were published in the journal ''[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]]''.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Kemp |first1=Luke |last2=Xu |first2=Chi |last3=Depledge |first3=Joanna |last4=Ebi |first4=Kristie |last5=Gibbins |first5=Goodwin |last6=Kohler |first6=Timothy |last7=Rockström |first7=Johan |last8=Scheffer |first8=Marten |last9=Schellnhuber |first9=Hans |last10=Steffen |first10=Will |last11=Lenton |first11=Timothy |title=Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=1 August 2022 |doi=10.1073/pnas.2108146119 |url=https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 |access-date=11 August 2022}}</ref>
 
== See also ==