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Climate endgame

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Climate endgame is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse[1] due to effects of climate change. The real chance of happening is considered small,[1] but these experts (which belong to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, a research centre at the University of Cambridge)[2] want to warn about this worst-case scenario to improve risk management, "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy”.[1]

Forest fire
Forest fire at Umatilla National Forest. Extreme forest fires are caused by climate change, and they unleash effects (more CO2 into the air, more heat...) which may make the situation even worse.

This fear is somewhat analogous to nuclear winter,[1] a worst-case possibility which was broadly studied and analysed during the Cold War.

The collapse would come through four factors: famine (crop loss, draught), extreme weather (hurricanes, floods), war (caused by the scarce resources) and disease.[1]

These scientists, a team of international experts led by Cambridge University,[2] also warn about tipping points: small rises in global temperature which result in big changes in the climate.[1] These tipping points could trigger others in a cascade (domino effect),[1] in a non-linear way, which makes their effects hard to estimate. Unintended consequences (knock-on effects) could also unleash.[1]

The names of these experts are Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber , Will Steffen and Timothy M. Lenton.[3] They have published their paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Carrington, Damian (1 August 2022). "Climate endgame: risk of human extinction 'dangerously underexplored'". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 August 2022.
  2. ^ a b Kraus, Tina; Lee, Ian (3 August 2022). "Scientists say the world needs to think about a worst-case "climate endgame"". CBS News. Retrieved 11 August 2022.
  3. ^ Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy (1 August 2022). "Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.2108146119. Retrieved 11 August 2022.