Climate endgame is the name some scientists have given to the hypothesis of a global societal collapse[1] due to effects of climate change. The real chance of happening is considered small,[1] but these experts (which belong to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, a research centre at the University of Cambridge)[2] want to warn about this worst-case scenario to improve risk management, "galvanise action, improve resilience, and inform policy”.[1]
This fear is somewhat analogous to nuclear winter,[1] a worst-case possibility which was broadly studied and analysed during the Cold War.
The collapse would come through four factors: famine (crop loss, draught), extreme weather (hurricanes, floods), war (caused by the scarce resources) and disease.[1]
These scientists, a team of international experts led by Cambridge University,[2] also warn about tipping points: small rises in global temperature which result in big changes in the climate.[1] These tipping points could trigger others in a cascade (domino effect),[1] in a non-linear way, which makes their effects hard to estimate. Unintended consequences (knock-on effects) could also unleash.[1]
The names of these experts are Luke Kemp, Chi Xu, Joanna Depledge, Kristie L. Ebi, Goodwin Gibbins, Timothy A. Kohler, Johan Rockström, Marten Scheffer, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber , Will Steffen and Timothy M. Lenton.[3] They have published their paper in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
See also
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h Carrington, Damian (1 August 2022). "Climate endgame: risk of human extinction 'dangerously underexplored'". The Guardian. Retrieved 11 August 2022.
- ^ a b Kraus, Tina; Lee, Ian (3 August 2022). "Scientists say the world needs to think about a worst-case "climate endgame"". CBS News. Retrieved 11 August 2022.
- ^ Kemp, Luke; Xu, Chi; Depledge, Joanna; Ebi, Kristie; Gibbins, Goodwin; Kohler, Timothy; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Schellnhuber, Hans; Steffen, Will; Lenton, Timothy (1 August 2022). "Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.2108146119. Retrieved 11 August 2022.