Draft:Cyclone Belal: Difference between revisions

{{AfC submission|t||ts=20240113232007|u=Mobius Gerig|ns=118|demo=}}<!-- Important, do not remove this line before article has been created. -->{{Infobox weather event

| as-of = 1415:00&nbsp;[[UTC]], 1415&nbsp;January

| lat = -1921.06

| lon = 5356.51

| distance-from = {{convert|28540|km|round=5}} NWSE of [[Réunion]]

| movement = [[Points of the compass|SSE]] <!--slowly--> at {{convert|74|kn|abbr=on}} <!--almost stationary-->

| pressure = 975972

| winds = 8575

| gusts = 10590

| pressure = 976975

On 11 January, the MFR marked a zone of disturbed weather, citing the conducive conditions induced by the MJO and an equatorial Rossby wave. The monsoon trough north-northeast of Madagascar had intensified several days prior, as convergence transferred moisture aloft.<ref name=":020">{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111349.pdf |title=Zone of Disturbed Weather 02 Warning Number (2/2/20232024) |date=11 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112170940/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111349.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> Concentration of convection near the center increased, particularly in the western section, as the system moved south.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111852.pdf |title=Zone of Disturbed Weather 02 Warning Number (3/2/20232024) |date=11 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112171445/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111852.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> By the next day, the JTWC issued a [[Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert]] (TCFA) on the potential disturbance, since it was in an environment of very warm [[Sea surface temperature|sea surface temperatures]], high [[ocean heat content]], low vertical shear, and excellent outflow.<ref>{{cite JTWC|date=12 January 2024|type=tcfa|designation=97S|url=https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/PGTW/Alphanumeric/Warning/Tropical_cyclone/20240112/080000/A_WTXS21PGTW120800_C_RJTD_20240112075932_65.txt|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112172601/https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/PGTW/Alphanumeric/Warning/Tropical_cyclone/20240112/080000/A_WTXS21PGTW120800_C_RJTD_20240112075932_65.txt|archive-date=12 January 2024|access-date=12 January 2024}}</ref> At 12:00 UTC, the MFR categorized the system as a tropical depression. Additionally, [[microwave]] imagery indicated an eye in the lower-layer while the storm steered more westward,<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401121353.pdf |title=Tropical Depression 02 Warning Number (6/2/20232024) |date=12 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112173202/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401121353.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> and the JTWC began issuing advisories on the system as a tropical cyclone.<ref>{{cite JTWC|date=12 January 2024|type=warn|category=tc|designation=05S|no=1|name=Five|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0524web.txt|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112173522/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtxs31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=12 January 2024|access-date=12 January 2024}}</ref> By 13 January, it intensified to a moderate tropical storm, prompting the MMS to name it ''Belal''.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://metservice.intnet.mu/current-cyclone.php |title=Current Storm/Cyclone 13 January 2024 04 AM |date=13 January 2024 |publisher=Mauritius Meteorological Services |access-date=13 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113004459/http://metservice.intnet.mu/current-cyclone.php |archive-date=13 January 2024}}</ref> Intense lightning activity within the center further signaled a period of [[rapid intensification]], leading to Belal becoming the seconda severe tropical storm of the season.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401131346.pdf |title=Severe Tropical Storm 02 (Belal) Warning Number (10/2/20232024) |date=13 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=13 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113153238/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401131346.pdf |archive-date=13 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> As the storm developed a well-defined eye, the MFR upgraded Belal to a tropical cyclone early on January 14.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401140127.pdf |title=Tropical Cyclone 02 (Belal) Warning Number (12/2/20232024) |date=14 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=14 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114022327/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401140127.pdf |archive-date=14 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref>

As the system developed, the MFR issued a yellow cyclone pre-alert for [[Réunion]] on 13 January,<ref>{{cite web |date=12 January 2024 |title=Dépression tropicale n°02 : Pre-alerte jaune cyclonique à La Réunion |url=https://meteofrance.re/fr/actualites/depression-tropicale-ndeg02-pre-alerte-jaune-cyclonique-la-reunion |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112223648/https://meteofrance.re/fr/actualites/depression-tropicale-ndeg02-pre-alerte-jaune-cyclonique-la-reunion |archive-date=12 January 2024 |access-date=12 January 2024 |publisher=Météo-France La Réunion |lang=fr}}</ref> which would bewas upgraded to an orange cyclone alert on 15:00 UTC the next day.<ref>{{cite news |date=13 January 2024 |title=Belal Alerte orange cyclonique : « Je me prépare » |url=https://www.reunion.gouv.fr/Actualites/Urgences/Belal-Alerte-orange-cyclonique-Je-me-prepare |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113162252/https://www.reunion.gouv.fr/Actualites/Urgences/Belal-Alerte-orange-cyclonique-Je-me-prepare |archive-date=13 January 2024 |access-date=13 January 2024 |publisher=Préfét de La Réunion |lang=fr}}</ref> On 13 January, the MMS issued a [[Tropical cyclone warnings and watches#Mauritius|class I cyclone warning]] for Mauritius.<ref>{{cite news |date=13 January 2024 |title=Belal : Maurice passe en alerte cyclonique de classe 1 |url=https://www.lemauricien.com/actualites/societe/belal-maurice-passe-en-alerte-cyclonique-de-classe-1/619827/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113074210/https://www.lemauricien.com/actualites/societe/belal-maurice-passe-en-alerte-cyclonique-de-classe-1/619827/ |archive-date=13 January 2024 |access-date=13 January 2024 |publisher=[[Le Mauricien]] |lang=fr}}</ref> On 14 January, the MFR would issue a red alert for [[Réunion]] as Belal neared the nation.<ref>{{Cite web |title=France raises cyclone alert to red as Belal approaches its Reunion island in Indian Ocean |url=https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/france-raises-cyclone-alert-to-red-as-belal-approaches-its-reunion-island-in-indian-ocean/3108635 |access-date=2024-01-14 |website=www.aa.com.tr}}</ref> On 15 January, the MFR would issue a purple alert for Réunion as Belal neared the coast.