Draft:Cyclone Belal: Difference between revisions

| as-of = 1518:0011 [[UTC]], 1516 January

| lat = -2123.60

| lon = 5661.14

| distance-from = {{convert|40605|km|round=5}} SEESE of [[Réunion]]

| movement = [[Points of the compass|SEE]] <!--slowly--> at {{convert|411|kn|abbr=on}} <!--almost stationary-->

| winds = 6555

| gusts = 9080

| pressure = 972981

| winds = 7550

| gusts = 9065

| pressure = 975989

On 11 January, the MFR marked a zone of disturbed weather, citing the conducive conditions induced by the MJO and an equatorial Rossby wave. The monsoon trough north-northeast of Madagascar had intensified several days prior, as convergence transferred moisture aloft.<ref name=":002">{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111349.pdf |title=Zone of Disturbed Weather 02 Warning Number (2/2/20232024) |date=11 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112170940/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111349.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> Concentration of convection near the center increased, particularly in the western section, as the system moved south.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111852.pdf |title=Zone of Disturbed Weather 02 Warning Number (3/2/20232024) |date=11 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112171445/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401111852.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> By the next day, the JTWC issued a [[Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert]] (TCFA) on the potential disturbance, since it was in an environment of very warm [[Sea surface temperature|sea surface temperatures]], high [[ocean heat content]], low vertical shear, and excellent outflow.<ref>{{cite JTWC|date=12 January 2024|type=tcfa|designation=97S|url=https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/PGTW/Alphanumeric/Warning/Tropical_cyclone/20240112/080000/A_WTXS21PGTW120800_C_RJTD_20240112075932_65.txt|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112172601/https://www.wis-jma.go.jp/d/o/PGTW/Alphanumeric/Warning/Tropical_cyclone/20240112/080000/A_WTXS21PGTW120800_C_RJTD_20240112075932_65.txt|archive-date=12 January 2024|access-date=12 January 2024}}</ref> At 12:00 UTC, the MFR categorized the system as a tropical depression. Additionally, [[microwave]] imagery indicated an eye in the lower-layer while the storm steered more westward,<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401121353.pdf |title=Tropical Depression 02 Warning Number (6/2/20232024) |date=12 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=12 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112173202/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401121353.pdf |archive-date=12 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> and the JTWC began issuing advisories on the system as a tropical cyclone.<ref>{{cite JTWC|date=12 January 2024|type=warn|category=tc|designation=05S|no=1|name=Five|url=https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0524web.txt|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240112173522/https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtxs31.pgtw..txt|archive-date=12 January 2024|access-date=12 January 2024}}</ref> By 13 January, it intensified to a moderate tropical storm, prompting the MMS to name it ''Belal''.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://metservice.intnet.mu/current-cyclone.php |title=Current Storm/Cyclone 13 January 2024 04 AM |date=13 January 2024 |publisher=Mauritius Meteorological Services |access-date=13 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113004459/http://metservice.intnet.mu/current-cyclone.php |archive-date=13 January 2024}}</ref> Intense lightning activity within the center further signaled a period of [[rapid intensification]], leading to Belal becoming a severe tropical storm.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401131346.pdf |title=Severe Tropical Storm 02 (Belal) Warning Number (10/2/20232024) |date=13 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=13 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240113153238/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401131346.pdf |archive-date=13 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> As the storm developed a well-defined eye, the MFR upgraded Belal to a tropical cyclone early on January 14.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401140127.pdf |title=Tropical Cyclone 02 (Belal) Warning Number (12/2/20232024) |date=14 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=14 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114022327/http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401140127.pdf |archive-date=14 January 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref> However, while Belal recurved southeastward, wind shear began to deteriorate the storm's structure into becoming asymmetrical.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401150128.pdf |title=Tropical Cyclone 02 (Belal) Warning Number (16/2/20232024) |date=14 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=16 January 2024}}</ref> The eyewall then struck the island of [[Réunion]] during the next day.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401151331.pdf |title=Tropical Cyclone 02 (Belal) Warning Number (18/2/20232024) |date=15 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=16 January 2024}}</ref> The storm briefly weakened back into a severe tropical storm,<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401151844.pdf |title=Severe Tropical Storm 02 (Belal) Warning Number (19/2/20232024) |date=16 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=16 January 2024}}</ref> before again becoming a tropical cyclone on 16 January after organization of the CDO.<ref>{{cite report |url=http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/cmrs/CMRSA_202401160057.pdf |title=Tropical Cyclone 02 (Belal) Warning Number (20/2/20232024) |date=16 January 2024 |publisher=[[Météo-France]] |access-date=16 January 2024}}</ref>