Editing Sea level rise
Latest revision | Your text | ||
Line 35: | Line 35: | ||
By 2013, improvements in modelling had addressed this issue, and model and semi-empirical projections for the year 2100 are now very similar.<ref name="Moore2013" /><ref name="Slangen2022" /> Yet, semi-empirical estimates are reliant on the quality of available observations and struggle to represent non-linearities, while processes without enough available information about them cannot be modelled.<ref name="Moore2013" /> Thus, another approach is to combine the opinions of a large number of scientists in what is known as a structured expert judgement (SEJ).<ref name="Slangen2022" /> |
By 2013, improvements in modelling had addressed this issue, and model and semi-empirical projections for the year 2100 are now very similar.<ref name="Moore2013" /><ref name="Slangen2022" /> Yet, semi-empirical estimates are reliant on the quality of available observations and struggle to represent non-linearities, while processes without enough available information about them cannot be modelled.<ref name="Moore2013" /> Thus, another approach is to combine the opinions of a large number of scientists in what is known as a structured expert judgement (SEJ).<ref name="Slangen2022" /> |
||
Variations of these primary approaches exist.<ref name="Slangen2022" /> For instance, large climate models are always in demand, so less complex models are often used in their place for simpler tasks like projecting flood risk in the specific regions. A structured expert judgement may be used in combination with modelling to determine which outcomes are more or less likely, which is known as "shifted SEJ". Semi-empirical techniques can be combined with the so-called "intermediate-complexity" models.<ref name="Slangen2022" /> After 2016, some ice sheet modelling exhibited the so-called ice cliff instability in Antarctica, which results in substantially faster disintegration and retreat than |
Variations of these primary approaches exist.<ref name="Slangen2022" /> For instance, large climate models are always in demand, so less complex models are often used in their place for simpler tasks like projecting flood risk in the specific regions. A structured expert judgement may be used in combination with modelling to determine which outcomes are more or less likely, which is known as "shifted SEJ". Semi-empirical techniques can be combined with the so-called "intermediate-complexity" models.<ref name="Slangen2022" /> After 2016, some ice sheet modelling exhibited the so-called ice cliff instability in Antarctica, which results in substantially faster disintegration and retreat than normally simulated.<ref name="DeConto2016">{{Cite journal |last1=DeConto |first1=Robert M. |last2=Pollard |first2=David |date=30 March 2016 |title=Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=531 |issue=7596 |pages=591–597 |doi=10.1038/nature17145 |pmid=27029274 |bibcode=2016Natur.531..591D |s2cid=205247890}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Gillis |first=Justin |date=30 March 2016 |title=Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly |newspaper=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html |access-date=28 May 2024 |archive-date=9 June 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240609214842/https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html |url-status=live }}</ref> The differences are limited with low warming, but at higher warming levels, ice cliff instability simulates far greater sea level rise than any other approach.<ref name="Slangen2022">{{cite journal |last1=Slangen |first1=A. B. A. |last2=Haasnoot |first2=M. |last3=Winter |first3=G. |date=30 March 2022 |title=Rethinking Sea-Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences |journal=Earth's Future |volume=10 |issue=4 |page=e2021EF002576 |doi=10.1029/2021EF002576 |bibcode=2022EaFut..1002576S |url=https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/00/378000.pdf |access-date=28 May 2024 |archive-date=26 May 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240526230811/https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/00/378000.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |
||
=== Projections for the 21st century === |
=== Projections for the 21st century === |