Editing Draft:Overshoot (book)

{{AFC submission|d|npov|u=Martin villafuerte85~eswiki|ns=118|decliner=Tavantius|declinets=20241018182608|ts=20241018135124}} <!-- Do not remove this line! -->

{{AFC comment|1=Shame, but that 12-chapter summary needs to be significantly compressed to 700 words to comply with [[MOS:PLOTLENGTH]]. Also, fix the tone. It's clearly notable, so doing that will make me accept it. [[User:Tavantius|Tavantius]] ([[User talk:Tavantius|talk]]) 18:26, 18 October 2024 (UTC)}}

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{{Short description|1980 non-fiction book by William R. Catton}}
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{{Infobox book
| italic title      = Overshoot
| name              = Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change
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| author            = [[William R. Catton Jr.]]
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| language = English
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| subject           = [[Demography]], [[ecology]], [[sociology]]
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| publisher         = [[University of Illinois Press]]
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| pub_date          = 1980
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| pages             = 298
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| isbn              = 0252009886
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| oclc              = 16587666
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'''''Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change''''' is a book by American sociologist [[William R. Catton Jr.]] The book is a critical work that many consider one of the most important yet overlooked books of the 20th century. The book discusses humanity's [[overexploitation]] of Earth's resources, leading to a situation where our consumption exceeds the planet's capacity to regenerate itself.

The book is divided into several parts, each addressing different aspects of [[ecological overshoot]]. It covers the historical development of human society, our dependence on unsustainable practices, and the need for a new ecological perspective. Catton emphasizes that humanity must recognize and adapt to the limits imposed by nature to avoid catastrophic consequences.

Catton's message is a call to action for humanity to adopt a more realistic and sustainable approach to living on Earth. He warns that ignoring these ecological limits will lead to severe repercussions, and only by understanding and respecting these limits can we hope to create a viable future for ourselves and future generations.

== Background ==

William Catton came of age in sociology when the major debates were about social-only theoretical orientations ([[structural functionalism]] or [[consensus theory]] versus [[Marxism]] or [[Conflict theories|conflict theory]]) and methodology (quantitative versus qualitative). His primary contribution was articulating an environmental sociological framework that challenged existing sociological theories in general from a completely different tack: synthesizing sociological and ecological theory.

Catton began writing the manuscript that would become this book during a three-year post as Professor of Sociology at the [[University of Canterbury]] in [[Christchurch]], [[New Zealand]],<ref name="nz">{{cite journal |last1=Goodrich |first1=Colin |last2=Du Plessis |first2=Rosemary |author-link2=Rosemary Du Plessis |last3=Dunlap |first3=Riley E |date=2016 |title=Obituary: William Robert Catton, Jr. 1926-2015 |url=https://thegreatstory.org/catton-obit-nz-sociology-2016.pdf |journal=New Zealand Sociology |volume=31 |issue=1 |pages=232–240 |access-date=11 September 2022}}</ref> then returning to his home country in 1973 as Professor of Sociology at [[Washington State University]].<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Dillman |first1=Don |date=March 2015 |title=In Remembrance: Louis Gray, Bill Catton, and Larry Salinger |url=https://soc.wsu.edu/socnews/in-remembrance-louis-gray-bill-catton-and-larry-salinger/ |journal=Sociology News (Washington State University) |access-date=14 September 2022}}</ref> During this period, Catton, in collaboration with fellow scholar Riley E. Dunlap, produced a series of influential articles on ecological issues.

Catton joined Dunlap in 1978 to coauthor the first substantial paper that not only came to establish the field of environmental sociology but also advocated for a paradigm shift.<ref name="freudenburg-1989">{{cite journal |last1=Freudenburg |first1=William R |last2=Gramling |first2=Robert |date=November 1989 |title=The Emergence of Environmental Sociology: Contributions of Riley E. Dunlap and William R. Catton, Jr. |url=https://www.thegreatstory.org/freudenburg-gramling-1989.pdf |journal=Sociological Inquiry |volume=59 |issue=4 |pages=439–452 |doi=10.1111/j.1475-682X.1989.tb00119.x |access-date=12 September 2022}}</ref> Titled "Environmental Sociology: A New Paradigm," Catton and Dunlap grounded their critique of then-mainstream sociology as bearing the burden of (what they would later call) the "[[Anthropocentrism|human exceptionalist paradigm]],"<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E |last2=Catton |first2=William R |date=March 1994 |title=Struggling with Human Exemptionalism: The Rise, Decline and Revitalization of Environmental Sociology |url=https://www.thegreatstory.org/dunlap-catton-1994-struggling.pdf |journal=The American Sociologist |volume=25 |pages=5–30 |doi=10.1007/BF02691936 |s2cid=145429121 |access-date=12 September 2022}}</ref> by which humans were presumed exempt from the ecological constraints facing all other species.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Catton |first1=William R |last2=Dunlap |first2=Riley E |date=January 1978 |title=Environmental Sociology: A New Paradigm |journal=The American Sociologist |volume=13 |issue=1 |pages=41–49}}</ref>

In their view, sociological research and writing were fundamentally marred. The mainstream failed to recognize that human dependence on finite natural resources (such as fossil fuel energy) along with human degradation of the air, water, soils, and biological processes on which humanity also depends would ultimately influence human social systems in powerful ways.<ref name="freudenburg-1989" />

== Great Acceleration ==
{{Main|Great Acceleration}}
Catton begins by recounting the story of Russian peasants in 1921 who chose to starve rather than consume the seed wheat needed for future planting. This story illustrates the concept of not stealing from the future, a principle that Catton argues is essential for sustainable living.

At the end of [[World War II]], there was a growing belief in science's ability to solve problems. The [[Atomic Age]] was expected to address energy issues, and technology was seen as a limitless resource, dismissing the Neo-[[Malthusianism|Malthusian]] pessimism of [[Henry Fairfield Osborn Jr.|Henry Farfield Osborn Jr.]] and [[William Vogt]]. [[Optimism|Optimistic]] predictions abounded, with the belief that human ingenuity and technology could achieve anything. With an endless supply of energy and a global technical-industrial civilization, economic growth was believed to be unstoppable. The only perceived obstacle was a shortage of trained scientists and engineers. Technology was expected to eliminate resource shortages.

However, this optimism was misplaced, as we relied too heavily on technology's assurances. In the 1970s, a more realistic outlook emerged due to events such as the African and Asian famines and the [[1973 oil crisis|OPEC oil embargo]]. This prompted a reassessment of our approach. Humans had placed too much faith in the capabilities of science and technology, mistakenly equating them with the advantages of inexpensive and easy-to-extract oil. The seemingly low cost of petroleum created a false belief in its endless availability. It appears that humans have overestimated the impact of technology and underestimated the significance of natural resources.

To move forward, people must embrace conservation and curb technological optimism. Recognizing our planet's finite limits and resource importance is crucial. Catton's text urges us to reassess our expectations from an ecological perspective. While we have temporarily expanded the planet's carrying capacity for humans, this has often been at the expense of other species and through the depletion of geological reserves. This temporary progress now threatens future economic growth, potentially leading to [[deindustrialization]] and [[population decline]]. Our reliance on technology has created a [[progress trap]] that endangers the environment and ecological systems essential for our survival.

== Chapter summary ==

=== Chapter 1: Our Need for a New Perspective ===
The first chapter highlights the urgent need to address our unsustainable exploitation of resources, which jeopardizes future generations' well-being. Current technology has temporarily expanded our carrying capacity, but this is not sustainable, and understanding the concept of "carrying capacity"—the maximum number an environment can support indefinitely—is essential. Traditional beliefs in perpetual progress are failing as we exceed the planet's limits, and while humans uniquely reflect on our impact, changing entrenched practices remains challenging. The book aims to shift perspectives by challenging outdated paradigms and emphasizing ecological awareness. Governments’ failures to deliver ideal futures and our overreliance on finite resources underscore the need for greater awareness. Instead of assigning blame, the book seeks to clarify our predicament and its impacts, advocating for an ecological perspective to better address the consequences of our overreach.

=== Chapter 2: The Tragic Story of Human Success ===
Expanding our carrying capacity through resource exploitation and ingenuity has frequently been a hallmark of human success. From the [[Control of fire by early humans|early use of fire]] and simple tools by prehuman ancestors to advancements like [[agriculture]] and [[Metallurgy|metal tools]], humanity has continually pushed the limits of its environment. Initial expansions involved displacing other species, while later increases came from exploiting finite reserves, such as fossil fuels, which only provided temporary boosts. Significant [[population growth]] occurred with the advent of [[agriculture]], leading to cultural and technological advancements. The introduction of [[firearm]]s in the [[14th century]] enabled European exploration and conquest of new lands, exacerbating resource depletion. The period that Catton calls the "Age of Exuberance" saw rapid [[population growth]] and [[technological innovation]], driven by perceived limitless resources. However, this success led to an overshoot, as increased [[life expectancy]] and [[industrialization]] outpaced the planet's carrying capacity. The shift from takeover methods to drawdown, relying heavily on fossil fuels, further strained resources. Despite these advances, modern society's reliance on finite resources and the myth of limitlessness have exacerbated the environmental crisis, underscoring the precarious balance between human success and ecological sustainability.

=== Chapter 3: Dependence on Phantom Carrying Capacity ===
Humanity's reliance on so-called "phantom carrying capacity" has distorted our understanding of resource limits. In the past, technological advancements and the exploitation of new lands have led to assumptions about limitless growth that have repeatedly proven to be false. Early warnings, such as those from demographer P.K. Whelpton in 1939, noted that technology was raising per capita resource demands rather than expanding capacity. Despite these warnings, political leaders promoted the myth of limitlessness, reinforced by the exploitation of uninhabited lands and finite fossil fuels. Over time, as global population pressures intensified, reliance on "ghost acreage"—distant lands and ocean resources—became evident. The idea of endless resources became even more entrenched thanks to the industrial revolution. This reliance has resulted in precarious living conditions that are dependent on non-renewable resources, hidden by technological advancements and historical myths. The illusion of self-sufficiency and continuous resource discovery drive efforts to address these issues, which frequently make the situation worse. As fossil fuel extraction rates decline, the disparity between energy use and replacement has widened, highlighting the unsustainable nature of modern lifestyles. Estimates suggest that to sustain current consumption levels, humanity would require resources equivalent to ten Earths, underscoring the challenge of transitioning from an energy-intensive society to a more sustainable one.

=== Chapter 4: Watershed Year: Modes of Adaptation ===
The culture of abundance has led to a pervasive belief in human exemption from natural constraints, particularly evident in the myth of limitlessness fostered by the [[New World]]'s initial resource surplus. This delusion proved challenging to reassess, especially for Americans who benefited from it as resources faced diminishing returns. The end of this myth was starkly highlighted in 1973 with the [[1973 oil crisis|Arab Oil Embargo]], which exposed the industrial world's dependence on foreign oil and triggered a fleeting awareness of resource limits. However, subsequent responses, including blaming Arabs and ignoring the underlying issue of overshoot, failed to address the true nature of resource depletion. The energy crisis intensified as those living in the industrialized countries continued to ignore the exhaustion of fossil fuels and the growing dependence on phantom resources. In efforts to maintain a façade of limitlessness, new sources like [[Prudhoe Bay Oil Field|Alaska's oil]] and offshore drilling projects like the [[North Sea oil]] were sought, while regulations aimed at pollution control were repealed. The U.S. government's response, including initiatives like [[Project Independence]] and hopes for new energy sources, revealed a persistent belief in endless substitutions despite mounting evidence of resource depletion. This divergence in perspectives, with some embracing institutional or technological changes while others clung to the myth of limitlessness, highlights a critical divide. Recognizing the ecological reality of finite resources and adapting to it remains crucial, as antinomian movements and shifting attitudes alone cannot extend or expand carrying capacity. True adaptation requires confronting the finite nature of resources and addressing the consequences of past excesses.

=== Chapter 5: The End of Exuberance ===
Abundance and liberty, once supported by ecological prerequisites, are now under threat as these conditions vanish. Most of the world will not achieve the living standards once experienced by those benefiting from past surpluses, and the democratic institutions that emerged from expanded carrying capacity face jeopardy. The [[Louisiana Purchase]] and a low population density that sustained the illusion of limitlessness and liberty contributed to early European perceptions of the Americas as a land of boundless resources. Catton argues that while a carrying capacity surplus fosters democratic institutions, a deficit weakens them. This exuberance, characterized by temporary optimism and hope, eventually led to environmental changes that undermined its sustainability. [[Yale University|Yale]] sociologist [[William Sumner Appleton|William Sumner]] warned in 1896 that social well-being depended on the balance between resources and population, which is not infinite but dynamically shifting due to technology, social organization, and boundary changes. As the New World's initial advantages waned, the consequences of overshoot became evident, leading to declining living standards and exacerbated by a persistent [[Cornucopianism|cornucopian]] mindset among leaders. This mindset ignored environmental impacts and relied on education and technology as panaceas. Unrealistic expectations, particularly the belief that underdeveloped regions could achieve limitlessness, led to frustration, demoralization, and political instability. Despite the enshrinement of economic growth ideals in global documents like the [[Charter of the United Nations|UN Charter]], the reality of resource depletion and overshoot became increasingly apparent. The persistence of an obsolete paradigm, coupled with the intractable nature of ecological limits, suggests that the post-exuberant world will face inevitable hardship and that achieving utopian dreams may be unattainable. Acknowledging the need for collaboration and adaptation to a finite world is crucial, as the era of exuberance gives way to a more challenging reality.

===Chapter 6: The Processes That Matter===

The decline from the Age of Exuberance has prompted many to blame external factors for their losses, yet Catton argues that such an outlook is misguided. Instead, we must recognize this decline as a natural outcome of ecological processes, similar to how species have historically impacted their environments to their detriment. Humans, who once believed themselves exempt from such predicaments, must acknowledge their role in altering their habitats. Universal interdependence, a concept central to ecology, reveals that all life forms are interconnected through their environmental impacts, emphasizing that both plants and animals rely on each other for sustenance and balance. The basis of life is photosynthesis, which uses solar energy to produce organic matter for animals and maintain the carbon-oxygen balance. Symbiosis and antibiosis are ways that organisms either work together or against each other. Symbiotic relationships are good for both parties, while antagonistic relationships usually happen because of too many organisms or environmental stresses. Communities, including human societies, evolve through processes of succession where niches diversify, although human communities often fail to reach a stable equilibrium due to ongoing environmental changes and competition. Historical misconceptions about human uniqueness have obscured our understanding of ecological patterns, leading to overshoot and adverse outcomes such as increased violence and social instability. As humans have drastically altered their environment through agriculture and resource exploitation, their dominance over other species has proven to be transient. The rapid growth and mechanization of agriculture have amplified this impact, suggesting that a shift in perspective is necessary. Misinterpretation of recent history through a pre-ecological lens has obscured the reality that our current trajectory is leading to overpopulation and environmental trauma. Recognizing the limitations of fossil-fueled industrial civilization and reflecting on historical patterns might have offered better foresight, underscoring the need for a new attitude toward our ecological and societal challenges.

=== Chapter 7: Succession and Restoration ===

Human advancements have markedly increased our competitive edge over other species, with technological progress leading to significant changes in human communities, such as the impact of motor vehicles. Biotic communities are in constant flux due to the life processes of species, with habitats undergoing continuous modification. Efforts to restore habitats to their previous states require substantial resources, and maintaining ecosystems, like gardens, demands ongoing management to counteract natural succession. Agriculture, for example, actively works against succession by creating and maintaining contrived ecosystems, a process referred to as the “continual undoing of succession.” While this method temporarily boosts carrying capacity, it is precarious and not a permanent solution. The assumption that agricultural advancements could yield permanent increases in carrying capacity has proven to be flawed, as the maintenance and improvement of agricultural systems are ongoing and demanding. The Age of Exuberance led to a belief in human superiority over the rest of nature, obscuring the understanding that technology and habitat creation might exacerbate resource depletion rather than expand carrying capacity. Sociologists initially applied concepts of ecological succession to human communities but failed to recognize that human impact on habitats could render them unsuitable for continued use. This oversight was rooted in the prevailing notion of limitlessness during the Age of Exuberance. Although some sociologists later acknowledged humans as part of the natural world, the broader public remained attached to the belief in endless resources and human dominance over nature.

=== Chapter 8: Ecological Causes of Unwelcome Change ===
[[Thomas Robert Malthus|Thomas Malthus]]’s 1798 ''[[An Essay on the Principle of Population|Essay on the Principle of Population]]'' posited that while human populations grow exponentially, subsistence increases linearly, leading to inevitable food shortages when the cumulative biotic potential of humans surpasses their habitat's carrying capacity. This principle, while debated, remains relevant due to overlooked factors such as extended carrying capacity from migrations and technological innovations. Darwin’s observations supported Malthus's idea, noting that competition for limited resources leads to attrition among species, with evolutionary advantages determining survival. However, the belief that humans are exempt from these ecological principles has led to a misunderstanding of our impacts on the environment. Modern societies, driven by an illusion of perpetual abundance, have relied on non-renewable resources and technological advancements to sustain growth. The Industrial Revolution, which started a dependence on coal and later oil, is an example of how this has led to a shift from reliance on current photosynthesis (wood) to past photosynthesis (fossil fuels). Despite these advancements, the fundamental issues Malthus identified have not been resolved but merely postponed, with diminishing returns on resources and socio-environmental consequences emerging. Malthus's error was not in the principle of exponential population growth but in underestimating its potential to exceed carrying capacity, a misconception that has exacerbated our current ecological predicament.

=== Chapter 9: Nature and the Nature of Man ===
The evolution of tool use among early primates introduced new selection pressures, offering reproductive advantages and transforming humans into "[[Prosthesis|prosthetic]] animals," whose survival increasingly depended on tools. This technological development enabled humans to expand into diverse environments but also introduced significant hazards and limitations. Geneticist [[G. Ledyard Stebbins]] noted that humanity's ability to adapt and occupy various niches has led to self-deception and the pursuit of goals that may end in disaster. This ability to fill multiple niches, facilitated by a wide array of tools, has led to a belief that humans are exceptional and immune to ecological limits, complicating our understanding of our interaction with the environment. The exploitation of fossil fuels and agricultural advancements initially increased human carrying capacity, but this expansion came at a price. Technology has not only accelerated resource extraction but also intensified our reliance on trade and complex societies. As technology advanced, it paradoxically increased the resources and space required per individual, leading to a situation where the human carrying capacity expanded at the expense of resource depletion. Technology, which was once a means to enhance human capacity, has ultimately become a source of increased demand and environmental strain, illustrating the paradox of progress where the expansion of human potential results in greater ecological challenges.

===Chapter 10: Industrialization: Prelude to Collapse===

The [[Industrial Revolution]] marked the beginning of humanity's heavy reliance on non-renewable resources, leading to an unsustainable expansion of carrying capacity that became evident during the Great Depression when ecological constraints were obscured by economic and social factors. The most constrained essential resource in an environment determines its carrying capacity, according to [[Liebig's law of the minimum]]. Trade can temporarily alleviate this constraint through energy averaging, but it does not eliminate it. The principle of scope expansion—through advancements in transportation and commerce—has attempted to overcome this limitation, but it has also made societies more vulnerable to disruptions in supply chains. Events such as [[World War I]] demonstrated this vulnerability, leading to economic and social upheavals that exposed the limits of local carrying capacities. The [[Great Depression]] illustrated a shift back to local resource dependence when global trade mechanisms failed. Despite technological advances and increased industrialization, which initially seemed to overcome ecological limits, this period revealed the unsustainable nature of such expansion, relying on fossil fuels and diminishing resources. The transition from circular to linear ecosystems with increased dependence on non-renewable resources has intensified our ecological footprint and led to an unsustainable growth trajectory. The increased use of fossil fuels as a source of energy is an example of this trend because it has sped up resource depletion and made it harder for us to support current populations without using previous energy reserves. The [[United Nations]]' 1972 [[United Nations Conference on the Human Environment|Conference on the Human Environment]] aimed to address these challenges but ultimately failed to secure a sustainable future. As resource depletion and environmental degradation worsen, it becomes evident that the conditions that enabled industrial growth are no longer viable, and the future may face severe ecological constraints. Understanding the history of these issues underscores that our current predicament is the result of collective actions and choices, not the decisions of any single group. Catton put his neologism ''Homo colossus'' in context:<blockquote>When the earth's deposits of fossil fuels and mineral resources were being laid down, ''Homo sapiens'' had not yet been prepared by evolution to take advantage of them. As soon as technology made it possible for mankind to do so, people eagerly (and without foreseeing the ultimate consequences) shifted to a high-energy way of life. Man became, in effect, a detritivore, ''Homo colossus''. Our species bloomed, and now we must expect a crash (of some sort) as the natural sequel.</blockquote>

=== Chapter 11: Faith Versus Fact ===
As the New World reached its growth limits—marked by completed westward expansion, depleting resource savings, and environmental degradation—emerging issues were often attributed to a lack of willpower rather than ecological constraints. This led to "Cargoist" remedies, where resources were invested in finding alternative fuels rather than confronting the reality of finite resources. The Millenarian Response emerged, with increasing numbers seeking solace in beliefs akin to [[cargo cult]]s, expecting that technological breakthroughs could resolve ecological problems without addressing the underlying environmental issues. This belief in technological salvation was based on flawed assumptions, such as the notion that past technological successes guaranteed future progress. For instance, the [[Green Revolution]]'s [[Cash crop|high-yield grains]] exacerbated population pressures and soil exhaustion, highlighting the limitations of substituting one resource for another. The pursuit of "infinite" energy solutions, like [[perpetual motion]] machines and [[breeder reactor]]s, also fell short of addressing the fundamental laws of physics, leading to misguided hopes. Similarly, attempts to harness solar energy overlooked the ecological impact of increased energy use. Belief in escaping the consequences of ecological overshoot through space travel or ideological redistribution represents another form of unrealistic thinking akin to technocornucopian myths. The notion of using space travel to avoid Earth's resource limits overlooks the massive resources required and the impracticality of sustaining human life off-world. Similarly, ideological solutions that propose equitable redistribution or lifestyle changes as salvation ignore the competitive nature inherent in human interactions and the ecological impact of altering our environment. These approaches fail to address fundamental issues such as resource limits, ecological antagonism, and biogeochemical processes, demonstrating a profound misunderstanding of ecological overshoot and its implications. The search for scapegoats, including blaming ecologists, reflected a refusal to accept the realities of resource limits and overshoot. This chapter underscores that while faith in technological or ideological solutions may offer temporary comfort, it often neglects the essential facts of ecological constraints and sustainability.

=== Chapter 12: Life Under Pressure ===
The concept of neo-Malthusianism, often used to discredit concerns about resource limits, overlooks the unique historical advantages of emerging nations like the US, which expanded during periods of lower Old World population pressures. In contrast, current 'underdeveloped' regions face significant constraints, influenced by climate and geography, which limit their ability to expand human ecological niches. Population pressure is different from just density. It is the amount of mutual interference that happens per person in a limited habitat. The increase in tools and technologies that make people more active and dependent makes this situation worse. For instance, the 1970s energy crises highlighted how rising per capita energy use, such as the dramatic increase in auto sales, accelerated resource drawdown, and intensified population pressures. Urbanization further compounded these issues, as mass migration to cities and suburban sprawl increased the demand for resources and transportation, placing additional burdens on less urbanized areas. By the early 20th century, urbanization had become widespread, with significant portions of the global population living in cities. This intensification of population pressures and technological impacts often led to negative consequences, including social and environmental antagonism. The pursuit of solutions to these pressures frequently resulted in new problems, creating a cycle of mutual interference and ecological disruption. As population growth and technological advancements continued, the resulting competition and antagonism between individuals and societies intensified, highlighting the complex interplay between human expansion and ecological constraints.

=== Chapter 13: Backing into the Future ===
Belief in human exceptionalism can lead to catastrophic outcomes, as the principles of ecology apply universally, with overshoot inevitably resulting in die-offs. Historical examples such as [[Easter Island]] illustrate how human societies can collapse when they exceed their ecological limits. The island's inhabitants, who initially thrived in isolation, faced severe conflict and resource depletion, leading to a drastic population decline. Similar to this, due to overshoot and habitat damage, reindeer populations on [[St. Matthew Island]] experienced an explosion before a sharp crash. Human societies are also susceptible to collapse when complex systems fail, as seen in the fragility of social mechanisms like queuing and fair resource distribution. The failure of these systems in the face of overpopulation and resource depletion leads to increased competition, social breakdown, and scapegoating. World War II exemplifies this dynamic, with the German response to perceived redundancy and the ensuing genocide actions reflecting the extreme reactions to resource scarcity and social pressures. As population pressures and technological impacts grow, human behavior increasingly mirrors ecological overshoot patterns, leading to intensified competition, antagonism, and a degradation of civil relations. Understanding these patterns is crucial for addressing our trajectory and mitigating the impacts of our collective overshoot.

=== Chapter 14: Turning Around ===
In April 1977, U.S. President [[Jimmy Carter]] attempted a paradigm shift by advocating for a new energy policy focused on conservation, recognizing the global energy crisis but failing to address the fundamental issue of ecological overshoot. Although Carter's message leaned towards an ecological perspective, he did not fully grasp the implications of the world's resource limits and continued advocating for new production methods, inadvertently perpetuating the Age of Exuberance. Many clung to outdated cornucopian views, hoping technological innovations and new reserves would resolve the crisis, ignoring the finite nature of resources. A true understanding of our predicament requires more than mere conservation; it involves recognizing how attempts to avoid collapse might exacerbate it. The ecological perspective emphasizes that human societies, like all species, are subject to the same principles of carrying capacity and overshoot, which can lead to collapse if not managed wisely. The contrast between pre-ecological assumptions, which view humans as masters of their destiny and capable of endless progress, and the ecological view, which acknowledges finite limits and interdependence with nature, highlights the need for a profound shift in understanding. To navigate the post-exuberant world, we must challenge outdated paradigms and embrace an ecological framework that recognizes our limits and fosters sustainable practices rather than futilely seeking solutions within the old mindset.

=== Chapter 15: Facing the Future Wisely ===
The persistence of Cargoist thinking exacerbates our predicament by fostering unrealistic expectations about technological fixes and the possibility of infinite growth. This mindset, rooted in the Age of Exuberance, mistakenly assumes that technological advancements can indefinitely expand our carrying capacity. However, as we push against ecological limits, these views ignore the diminishing returns of resource extraction and the environmental degradation resulting from our expansion. The historical example of the [[Great Famine (Ireland)|Irish Potato Famine]] illustrates the dangers of overreliance on a single resource and the potential for catastrophic crashes when such resources are depleted. Modern parallels suggest that continuing to exploit finite resources without addressing fundamental limits may lead to similar or even more severe outcomes. Moving forward, we face a crucial choice: to either embrace ecological modesty, which involves living within our carrying capacity and relying on sustainable resource use, or to continue our current trajectory, which risks exacerbating our problems. Acknowledging the possibility of a severe future crash, it is essential to plan adaptive strategies that focus on conservation and self-restraint rather than on unsustainable growth. The challenge is to shift from Cargoist thinking towards an ecological perspective that recognizes our dependence on finite resources and fosters sustainable practices, thus potentially ensuring a more stable future for humanity.

== Reception and legacy ==

In 1995, [[Derrick Jensen]] similarly chose to highlight Catton's generosity of soul—despite the dark certainty of humanity's future. In his book ''Listening to the Land,''<ref>{{cite book |last1=Jensen |first1=Derrick |title=Listening to the Land |date=1995 |publisher=Sierra Club Books |isbn=0-87156-417-3 |location=San Francisco |page=131 |chapter=William R. Catton, Jr}}</ref> Jensen chose to introduce his interview with Catton by way of this pull-quote from Catton's book ''Overshoot'': <blockquote>

In a future that is as unavoidable as it will be unwelcome, survival and sanity may depend upon our ability to cherish rather than to disparage the concept of human dignity. </blockquote>

In 2008, the introductory paper (by Richard York) for the "Symposium on Catton and Dunlap’s Foundational Work Establishing an Ecological Paradigm" concluded: <blockquote>The effect of Catton and Dunlap’s work has been profound, since it opened up a large swath of new terrain to sociological inquiry. It made possible the growing body of research in sociology that examines both human effects on the environment and the effects of the environment on society.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=York |first1=Richard |date=December 2008 |title=Introduction to the Symposium on Catton and Dunlap's Foundational Work Establishing an Ecological Paradigm |url=https://thegreatstory.org/york-2008-symposium.pdf |journal=Organization & Environment |volume=21 |issue=4 |pages=446–448 |doi=10.1177/1086026608331263 |s2cid=145514768 |access-date=12 September 2022}}</ref></blockquote>York listed as "foundational" to the field not only the 1978 "New Paradigm" collaboration by Catton and Dunlap but also their coauthored papers published in the ''[[Annual Review of Sociology]]'' in 1979<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Dunlap |first1=Riley E |last2=Catton |first2=William R |date=August 1979 |title=Environmental Sociology |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301699078 |journal=Annual Review of Sociology |volume=5 |pages=243–273 |doi=10.1146/annurev.so.05.080179.001331 |access-date=12 September 2022}}</ref> and ''[[American Behavioral Scientist]]'' in 1980.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Catton |first1=William R |last2=Dunlap |first2=Riley E |date=September 1980 |title=A New Ecological Paradigm for Post-Exuberant Sociology |url=https://www.thegreatstory.org/catton-dunlop-1980.pdf |journal=American Behavioral Scientist |volume=24 |issue=1 |pages=15–47 |doi=10.1177/000276428002400103 |s2cid=144801644}}</ref> Together, these provided "an explicit intellectual grounding for environmental sociology — defined as the study of societal-environmental interactions."

In an obituary for Catton published in the journal ''New Zealand Sociology'', Riley E. Dunlap wrote:<blockquote>I always describe ''Overshoot'' as a superb ecological history of Homo sapiens and analysis of our evolution into what Bill called Homo colossus, yielding a profound understanding of our current ecological dilemma.<ref name="nz2">{{cite journal |last1=Goodrich |first1=Colin |last2=Du Plessis |first2=Rosemary |author-link2=Rosemary Du Plessis |last3=Dunlap |first3=Riley E |date=2016 |title=Obituary: William Robert Catton, Jr. 1926-2015 |url=https://thegreatstory.org/catton-obit-nz-sociology-2016.pdf |journal=New Zealand Sociology |volume=31 |issue=1 |pages=232–240 |access-date=11 September 2022}}</ref></blockquote>In his review for ''[[Public Health Reports]]'', Harold B. Weiss highlights its enduring relevance and visionary insights. Weiss emphasizes Catton's argument that humanity's current consumption patterns are unsustainable, leading to ecological overshoot and future deprivation. Catton's work, described as both a paradigm and temporal shift, critiques modern civilization's dependence on finite resources and warns of inevitable ecological decline. Weiss underscores the book's challenge to public health professionals to consider long-term ecological impacts alongside immediate humanitarian efforts.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Weiss |first=Harold B. |date=2009 |title=Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change |journal=Public Health Reports |volume=124 |issue=1 |pages=167–168 |doi=10.1177/003335490912400121 |issn=0033-3549 |pmc=2602943}}</ref>

As with ''carrying capacity'', [[Overshoot (population)|''overshoot'']] is a standard term in the ecological sciences. In his 2015 obituary for Catton, [[John Michael Greer]] put this ecological term into its activist context: <blockquote>The core of ''Overshoot'', which is also the core of the entire world of appropriate technology and green alternatives that got shot through the head and shoved into an unmarked grave in the [[Ronald Reagan|Reagan]] years, is the recognition that the principles of ecology apply to industrial society just as much as they do to other communities of living things.<ref name="Greer-2015">{{cite journal |last1=Greer |first1=John Michael |author-link=John Michael Greer |date=February 5, 2015 |title=As Night Closes In |url=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-02-05/as-night-closes-in/ |journal=Resilience |access-date=3 May 2021}}</ref></blockquote>

The manuscript itself attracted an icon of the environmental movement, former U.S. Interior Secretary [[Stewart Udall]]. To write the book's foreword was a sign of the popular (and activist) reach the book would garner. That reach included wilderness advocate [[Dave Foreman]], a cofounder of [[EarthFirst!]] and of ''[[Wild Earth]]'' magazine. In a reflection upon Catton's death, Foreman wrote:<blockquote>William Catton's ''Overshoot'' is one of the most important books I've ever read, and Bill was one of my greatest teachers."<ref name="tribute">{{cite web |last1=Dowd |first1=Michael |last2=Barlow |first2=Connie |title=Tribute to William R. Catton, Jr. |url=https://thegreatstory.org/william-catton.html |access-date=10 September 2022 |website=The Great Story}}</ref> Catton attributed his own wilderness experiences in national parks of the USA as the source of his drive to understand ecological systems and ecological limits — including the fundamental ecological principle of [[carrying capacity]].</blockquote>In a 2021 guest post titled "Overshoot: Where We Now Stand," [[Michael Dowd]] wrote that Catton's book is "the single most important book I have ever read."<ref>{{cite web |last1=Dowd |first1=Michael |title=Overshoot: Where We Stand Now (21 September 2021) |url=https://howtosavetheworld.ca/2021/09/21/overshoot-where-we-stand-now-guest-post-by-michael-dowd/ |access-date=12 September 2022 |website=How to Save the World |publisher=Dave Pollard}}</ref> He also quotes [[Richard Heinberg]], saying:<blockquote>Climate change is not our biggest problem; overshoot is. Global warming is but a symptom of ecological overshoot.</blockquote>The 30th anniversary of the book's publication elicited an 8-page article in ''Human Ecology Review'' urging academics to reacquaint themselves with Catton's synthesis:<blockquote>Environmental sociology and related disciplines should seek to rediscover the message in ''Overshoot'' and actively pursue a cohesive theoretical direction that challenges the assumptions that drive environmentally destructive behaviors and threaten humanity’s very survival.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Schultz |first1=Jessica |last2=York |first2=Richard |date=2011 |title=Recognizing Overshoot: Succession of an Ecological Framework |url=http://www.humanecologyreview.org/pastissues/her182/schultz.pdf |journal=Human Ecology Review |volume=18 |issue=2 |pages=139–146}}</ref></blockquote>Summing up the purpose of all his sociological writings after the publication of ''Overshoot'', Catton wrote in 2008:<blockquote>From about 1980 onward, my writing, either solo or in tandem, has sought to spread awareness of the urgent need for everyone, including sociologists, to recognize that our lifestyles, mores, institutions, patterns of interaction, values, and expectations are shaped by a cultural heritage that was formed in a time when carrying capacity exceeded the human load. A cultural heritage can outlast the conditions that produced it. That carrying capacity surplus is gone now, eroded both by population increase and immense technological enlargement of per capita resource appetites and environmental impacts. Human life is now being lived in an era of deepening carrying capacity deficit. All of the familiar aspects of human societal life are under compelling pressure to change in this new era when the load increasingly exceeds the carrying capacities of many local regions — and of a finite planet. Social disorganization, friction, demoralization, and conflict will escalate.<ref name="Catton-20082">{{cite journal |last1=Catton |first1=William R |date=2008-10-30 |title=A Retrospective View of My Development as an Environmental Sociologist |url=https://thegreatstory.org/catton-2008-retrospective.pdf |journal=Organization & Environment |volume=21 |issue=4 |pages=471–477 |doi=10.1177/1086026608328870 |s2cid=144421790}}</ref></blockquote>Kurt Cobb, in his 2015 tribute to Catton, wrote:<blockquote>Perhaps the most important thing to note about Catton is that he did not blame anyone for the human predicament. To him that predicament is the natural outcome of evolutionary processes and the powers given to humans through those processes. That predicament is no more a product of conscious thought and intention than is the beating of our own hearts.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Cobb |first1=Kurt |date=15 February 2015 |title=William Catton's Warning |url=https://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-02-15/william-catton-s-warning/ |website=Resilience}}</ref></blockquote>Tom Butler, former editor of ''[[Wild Earth]]'' magazine, inserted a dedication to Catton in the 2015 book he edited, which was titled ''Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot''. There, Butler described Catton as a "peerless teacher on the perils of overshoot."<ref name="butler">{{cite book |last1=Butler |first1=Tom |url=https://issuu.com/globalpopulationspeakout/docs/final_over_book |title=Overdevelopment, Overpopulation, Overshoot |date=2015 |publisher=Foundation for Deep Ecology |isbn=978-1939621238 |access-date=14 September 2022}}</ref>

In his 2023 review of the book, Paul Mobbs examined how humans resist obvious facts, notably about ecological limits and society's collapse. Mobbs emphasizes Catton's claim that humanity's development and resource exploitation have created an unsustainable scenario. In addition to warning about ecological fate, Mobbs emphasizes that ''Overshoot'' challenges the belief in technological salvation, emphasizing the need for a profound change in how we perceive and react to ecological crises, helping us understand humanity's relationship with the Earth and the need for change:<blockquote>[''Overshoot''] is ''not about'' the ecological processes of ‘overshoot’ and ‘collapse’ specifically; ''it is about us!'', and how we collectively react to those issues.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Mobbs |first=Paul |title=Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change – 'A Book in Five Minutes' no.27, Full Flower Moon 2023 |url=http://www.fraw.org.uk/blog/reviews/027/index.shtml |access-date=2024-09-08 |website=Ramblinactivist's Blogs |language=en-GB}}</ref></blockquote>

==References==
{{reflist}}

== External links ==
* [https://www.press.uillinois.edu/books/?id=p009884 Official site]

{{Draft categories|
[[:Category:1980 in the environment]]
[[:Category:1980 non-fiction books]]
[[:Category:American non-fiction books]]
[[:Category:Ecology books]]
[[:Category:Environmental non-fiction books]]
[[:Category:Works about human overpopulation]]
[[:Category:Big History]]
[[:Category:Natural history books]]
[[:Category:Paleontology books]]
[[:Category:Science books]]
[[:Category:Works about the theory of history]]
[[:Category:Sociology books]]
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