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microprediction committed May 9, 2024
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- [papers, articles etc](https://github.com/microprediction/home)
- Medium [blog](https://microprediction.medium.com/)

If we don't know each other yet from [LI](https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercotton/) or elsewhere, I'm an applied mathematician / practitioner. I like to provoke people into using market-inspired collective mechanisms for prediction. I used the options market to effortlessly beat 97% of participants in the year-long M6 contest - see the [post](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/petercotton_the-options-market-beat-94-of-participants-activity-7020917422085795840-Pox0?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop) or [article](https://medium.com/geekculture/the-options-market-beat-94-of-participants-in-the-m6-financial-forecasting-contest-fa4f47f57d33). My [book](https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/microprediction) is a meditation on the power of markets in a very specific yet ubiquitous domain: frequently repeated prediction. Read the [awards and reviews](https://microprediction.github.io/building_an_open_ai_network/feedback.html).
If we don't know each other yet from [LI](https://www.linkedin.com/in/petercotton/) or elsewhere, I'm an applied mathematician / practitioner and quant at heart with great respect for what I term the "Indispensable Markets Hypothesis" - a weaker form EMH. That's to say I like to provoke people into using market-inspired collective mechanisms for prediction. I used the options market to effortlessly beat 97% of participants in the year-long M6 contest - see the [post](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/petercotton_the-options-market-beat-94-of-participants-activity-7020917422085795840-Pox0?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop) or [article](https://medium.com/geekculture/the-options-market-beat-94-of-participants-in-the-m6-financial-forecasting-contest-fa4f47f57d33). My [book](https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/microprediction) is a meditation on the power of markets in a very specific yet ubiquitous domain: frequently repeated prediction. Read the [awards and reviews](https://microprediction.github.io/building_an_open_ai_network/feedback.html).

![](https://github.com/microprediction/microprediction/blob/master/docs/assets/images/cotton_microprediction_3d_down.png)

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