JP6716811B1 - Meat transaction status estimation system, meat transaction status estimation server, meat transaction status estimation method, and meat transaction status estimation program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a meat transaction situation estimation system, a meat transaction situation estimation server, a meat transaction situation estimation method, and a meat transaction situation estimation program capable of improving stability in future procurement implementation for a consumer who procures meat. provide. SOLUTION: The meat transaction status estimation system 1 includes a procurement condition acquisition unit 111 for acquiring procurement conditions including a desired procurement time, livestock information including information on the rearing status of livestock corresponding to this meat, and past livestock. Market information including the shipping status estimation unit 142 that estimates the future shipping status of livestock using the past livestock information that includes information about the livestock feeding status, and meat transaction information that includes information about the meat supply amount in the wholesale market. The market information acquisition unit 131 to be acquired, and the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 that estimates the future meat transaction status including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time using the future shipment status and meat transaction information. [Selection diagram] Figure 1

Description

The present disclosure mainly relates to a meat trade status estimation system, a meat trade status estimation server, a meat trade status estimation method, and a meat trade status estimation program in a livestock wholesale market.

In the field of livestock production, livestock farmed by livestock farmers is generally wholesaled at a wholesale market and processed into meat such as carcasses and offal at a slaughterhouse. Retailers such as restaurants, mass retailers, and retail stores procure processed meat through wholesale markets and the like.

In such a distribution process (supply chain), a system has been developed in which a livestock farmer who is a producer can calculate an evaluation price of livestock that is a product (see Patent Document 1). In Patent Document 1, the predicted shipping price (first variable) of a product (for example, cattle) is changed based on the growth status data group related to the growth status of the product, so as to respond to the growth process of the product. The evaluation value can be presented as appropriate.

JP, 2009-122884, A

However, in Patent Document 1, it is possible for a livestock farmer (producer) to grasp the evaluation value of the target livestock by comparing the preset plan with the livestock history of the livestock to be raised by the livestock farmer. Since there is livestock provided by other producers in the wholesale market, where the price is determined, the transaction price of meat that is determined fluctuates depending on the balance of supply and demand at that time. Consumers such as retailers or processors located downstream of the supply chain procure meat mainly from middle-class wholesale markets, resulting in the risk of fluctuations in transaction prices and procurement volumes in wholesale markets. ..

The present invention has been made to solve such a problem, and an object of the present invention is to provide a meat transaction that can improve stability in future procurement implementation to a consumer who procures meat. A situation estimation system, a meat transaction situation estimation server, a meat transaction situation estimation method, and a meat transaction situation estimation program.

In order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the meat trading situation estimation system according to the present invention includes a procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and livestock raising corresponding to the meat. A shipping status estimation unit that estimates future shipping status of the livestock using the livestock information including status information and past livestock information including information about the status of the livestock that has been bred in the past, and a wholesale market for the livestock. Using the market information acquisition unit to obtain market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in, and the future shipment status and the market information, the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time And a meat trade status estimation unit that estimates future meat trade status including.

In the meat trading situation estimation system, information on the number of breeding animals based on the livestock statistical information may be included as the feeding situation of the livestock.

In the meat trading situation estimation system, the fed livestock information may include information on the livestock raised in each farm.

In the meat trading situation estimation system, the market information acquisition unit may acquire, as the market information, larvae trading information including information on a trading volume of larvae corresponding to the livestock.

In the meat trading status estimation system, the meat trading status estimating unit may calculate a tendency of the meat price from the market information and estimate a future meat price at the desired procurement time as a future meat trading status.

In the meat trade status estimation system, the meat trade status estimation unit may calculate a basic statistic for the future meat price from the tendency of the meat price.

In the meat trade situation estimation system, the meat trade situation estimation unit may compare the procurement condition with the future meat trade situation and generate a difference portion as difference information.

In the meat trading situation estimation system, the livestock information includes information about a grade of the livestock as meat in the past livestock information, and the shipping status estimation unit indicates a future shipping status for each grade. Estimating, the market information acquisition unit acquires the meat transaction information for each grade, the meat transaction status estimation unit uses the future shipping status for each grade and the meat transaction information for each grade to determine the desired The future meat transaction status including the future meat supply amount for each grade at the time of procurement may be estimated.

In the meat trading status estimation system, the market information acquisition unit acquires the meat trading information for each of a plurality of wholesale markets, the meat trading status estimation unit uses the future shipping status and the meat trading information. The future meat trading situation including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time may be estimated for each of the plurality of wholesale markets.

In the meat trading situation estimation system, the livestock may be pigs.

In order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the meat transaction status estimation server according to the present invention includes a procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and a livestock corresponding to the meat. Using the livestock information including information on the feeding status of the livestock, and past livestock information including information on the feeding status of the livestock that was bred in the past, a shipping status estimation unit that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock, and A market information acquisition unit that acquires market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, and future meat supply at the desired procurement time using the future shipment status and the market information. A meat trade status estimation unit that estimates the future meat trade status including the quantity.

Further, in order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the meat trading situation estimation method according to the present invention includes a procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and a livestock corresponding to the meat. Using the livestock information including the information about the feeding status of the livestock and the past livestock information including the information about the feeding status of the livestock that was bred in the past, a shipping status estimation step of estimating the future shipping status of the livestock, and A market information acquisition step of acquiring market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, and future meat supply at the desired procurement time using the future shipment status and the market information. A meat transaction status estimating step of estimating a future meat trade status including the amount of the meat;

Further, in order to achieve the above-mentioned object, the meat trading situation estimation program according to the present invention includes a procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and a livestock corresponding to the meat. Using the livestock information including the information about the feeding status of the livestock and the past livestock information including the information about the feeding status of the livestock that was bred in the past, a shipping status estimation step of estimating the future shipping status of the livestock, and A market information acquisition step of acquiring market information including meat transaction information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market, and future meat supply at the desired procurement time using the future shipment status and the market information. A meat transaction status estimation step of estimating a future meat trade status including the amount of the meat;

According to the present invention using the above means, it is possible to improve the stability in the desired procurement implementation for a consumer who procures meat.

1 is a system configuration diagram showing a meat transaction status estimation system including a meat transaction status estimation server according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows a specific example of livestock information, market information, and procurement conditions. It is the flowchart which showed the meat transaction situation estimation routine performed in the calculating part of the meat transaction situation estimation server. It is a schematic block diagram which shows the structure of the computer which concerns on embodiment.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

<Structure>
FIG. 1 is a system configuration diagram showing a meat transaction status estimation system 1 including a meat transaction status estimation server 101 according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, in the meat transaction status estimation system 1 according to the present embodiment, a meat transaction status estimation server 101 and an information terminal 201 used by a user are communicably connected via a network NW. Although only the information terminal 201 is shown in FIG. 1 assuming one user for simplification of description, the meat transaction situation estimation server 101 can be connected to the information terminals of a plurality of users via the network NW. ..

In addition, the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is a livestock statistical information source I1, I2, I3 that handles statistical information on livestock farming such as national, local government, and administrative corporations, a plurality of farms F1, F2 that breed livestock, F3 and a plurality of wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 that trade livestock, and a plurality of information terminals of a cattle market (pig market) Mb1, Mb2, Mb3 are communicably connected via a network NW, Statistical information on livestock from each livestock statistical information source I1, I2, I3, information on livestock (pigs) to be described later on each farm F1, F2, F3, each wholesale market Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 and each cattle market (pig market) ) It is possible to acquire the information on the wholesale market and the information on the young cattle market (pig market) described later in Mb1, Mb2, and Mb3. For simplification of description, FIG. 1 shows only three livestock statistical information sources, three farms, three wholesale markets, and three livestock markets (pig market). It is possible to connect to more sources of livestock statistics, farms, wholesale markets, and livestock markets (pig market) via the network NW. In addition, one farm may own a plurality of farms. Further, the wholesale market and the livestock market (pig market) may be wholesalers, meat centers, cooperatives, etc., who perform meat trades or pigs trades.

The meat transaction status estimation system 1 is a system that estimates and presents the meat transaction status corresponding to the procurement conditions by using retailers such as a restaurant, a mass retailer, and a retail store that mainly procure meat from the wholesale market as users. .. The operator of the meat trading situation estimation system 1 performs a service of providing the retailer with the results of estimating the meat trading situation using the system. In the meat transaction status estimation system 1, the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is managed by the operator of the meat transaction status estimation system 1, and the retailer uses the information terminal 201. The meat transaction status estimation server 101 may be managed by the retailer itself.

In the present embodiment, the livestock for meat to be procured is described as a pig. Pigs are mainly classified into breeding pigs (breeding livestock) and non-breeding pigs (non-breeding livestock). Breeding pigs are so-called sows that are bred to produce piglets. Non-breeding pigs are so-called porks that are fattened for shipping as meat. Individual identifiers (individual IDs) are individually assigned to the sows, and individuals are managed. A group identifier (group ID) is given to a plurality of pigs, and the pigs are group-managed. In addition, a piglet (juvenile) is a piglet that is planned to be fattened mainly as a pig in the future, and after being selected as a pig, a group identifier (group ID) is given in the same manner as a pig that is self-propagated. And group management.

The meat transaction status estimation server 101 includes one or a plurality of servers (computers) that execute processing based on a program, and has various calculation units and storage units. Functionally, the meat transaction status estimation server 101 mainly has a procurement condition acquisition unit 111, a livestock information database 121, a market information acquisition unit 131, a market information database 132, a calculation unit 141, and a display unit 151. (Hereinafter, the database is referred to as DB).

The procurement condition acquisition unit 111 has a function of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time, a desired procurement amount, and a desired procurement price, which the user inputs via the input unit 211 of the information terminal 201, for each meat grade. The desired procurement amount can be specified by the number of carcasses, the weight of carcass, and the like. In addition, it is possible to specify the procurement conditions with a range, for example, the desired procurement time can be specified not only as a predetermined day but also as a period, and the desired procurement amount is not limited to a predetermined carcass head or carcass weight. The carcass head number or carcass weight within a predetermined range can be designated, and the desired procurement price can be specified as a price within a predetermined range as well as a predetermined price. It is also possible to specify only a part of the grade, the desired procurement amount, and the desired procurement time as the procurement condition. In addition to this, the procurement conditions may include the breed of pork, the portion of meat, and the like.

The livestock information DB 121 stores, as livestock information, livestock statistical information from each of the livestock statistical information sources I1, I2, and I3, and breeding pig information and past pig information based on information about pigs on farms F1, F2, and F3. There is. Specifically, FIG. 2 shows livestock information, market information, and specific examples of procurement conditions.

As shown in FIG. 2, the livestock information includes information on the number of domestic and past breeding units and the number of breeding populations nationwide and by prefecture based on the livestock statistics information. In addition, the number of reared pigs includes the number of reared pigs and the number of reared mother pigs. This information serves as the basis for information on the overall production amount of pigs by country and by prefecture, that is, information on the scale of the pig market. The current number of pigs and pigs that are raised and the number of pigs that are raised based on the livestock statistics are included in the feed pig information, and the number of pigs and pigs that were raised in the past and the number of pigs that are raised are included in the past pig information.

In addition, the livestock information includes breeding pig information and past pig information based on information about pigs of individual farms F1, F2, and F3. The breeding pig information includes the piglet information relating to the piglet currently fed at each farm, and the piglet information relating to the piglet currently being fed. The pork information is group-managed information. Specifically, the breed of pig group, the number/identifier of the group, the number of pigs in each group, whether each group is self-breeding or purchased at the pig market. Procurement method (source information), number of days after birth (age), type and amount and timing of food given (feeding history), type and amount of drug administered and timing (medication history), current It includes information about the feeding status of the pigs, such as the group weight, the movement history, and so on. Mother pig information is information that is managed individually, and specifically, the breed of the mother pig, the number of mother pigs, the number of births, the presence or absence of pregnancy, the mating method, the mating date, the expected date of birth, and one birth. It includes information on the number of piglets (the number of pigs) and weaners, the age, the feeding history, the medication history, the weight, etc., regarding the rearing of the sows.

The past pig information includes past pig information regarding past pigs raised in each farm, and past pig information regarding past pigs raised in each farm. Specifically, the past pork information is group-managed information, and specifically, the breed of the pork group, the number of pigs at the time of shipment (shipment number), the age at the time of shipment (shipment age), and the origin. Information such as information, feeding history, medication history, group weight at shipping (group weight at shipping), meat quality of shipped pigs, number of deaths that died before shipping, etc. Each included. Past sow information is individually managed information, and specifically, sow breed, breeding boar breed, breeding method, number of abortions, total number of deliveries, total number of deliveries, number of deliveries at each delivery ( The information includes the number of surviving pups), the number of weaners, feeding history, medication history, and other information related to past feeding conditions related to the birth of pigs.

Past pig information including such information is stored without being limited to farms. For example, from information relating to the date and time associated with each event (shipping, feeding, medication, weight measurement, death, birth, etc.) It is possible to store statistical information such as shipment trends by pig breed, birth trends by sow breed, monthly shipment trends and birth trends. That is, these pieces of information can be supporting information or supplementary information of the livestock statistics.

The market information acquisition unit 131 uses the wholesale prices Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 connected to each other via the network NW, the piglet markets Mb1, Mb2, Mb3, and information sources open to the public, etc. It has the function of acquiring market information including. In particular, the market information acquisition unit 131 acquires market information for each of a plurality of wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 in different regions. The market information acquisition unit 131 is connected to the market information DB 132.

The market information DB 132 stores the market information acquired by the market information acquisition unit 131. As shown in FIG. 2, the market information stored in the market information DB 132 includes market basic information in each wholesale market, meat trading information, market basic information in each piglet market, piglet trading information (juvenile trade Information) is included.

Specifically, the market basic information of the wholesale market includes information on the name, address, scale, variety of products handled, business days, reception time of livestock, expenses, etc. of the wholesale market. The meat trade information includes information on current and past carcass prices and carcass supply amounts for each grade. The carcass supply amount may be the carcass head number or carcass weight. Further, the meat transaction information may include not only information on carcasses but also information on meat in specific parts such as internal organs and head.

Further, the market basic information in the piglet market includes information on the name, address, scale, kind of business, business days, reception hours of piglets, expenses, etc. of the piglet market. The piglet trade information includes current and past piglet trade prices and piglet trade volume by weight (eg, baby pigs under 42.5 kg, regular pigs over 42.5 kg). The amount of piglets traded may be the number of piglets or the weight of piglets.

The calculation unit 141 has a function of estimating the future meat trade status corresponding to the procurement conditions acquired by the procurement condition acquisition unit 111 from the livestock information stored in the livestock information DB 121 and the market information stored in the market information DB 132. have. Specifically, the calculation unit 141 has a shipping status estimation unit 142 and a meat transaction status estimation unit 143 as main functions.

The shipping status estimating unit 142 has a function of estimating the future shipping status of the pork using the breeding pig information and the past pig information in the livestock information of the livestock information DB 121. For example, the shipping status estimation unit 142 manages the number of poultry pigs, the number of poultry pigs, and the number of individual pig farms for the entire livestock market that is the target of the pork information in the feed pig information for the pigs that meet the meat procurement conditions. The trend of the number of pigs to be raised, the number of pigs to be raised, and the number of individual pigs as a whole of the target livestock market in the past pig information based on the breeds, age, feeding history, medication history, herd weight, etc. In the future, the future shipment time and future of the pork currently bred by using the trends such as the number of pigs of the same breed in the same year, the shipping age, the group weight at the time of shipment, the meat quality, the feeding history, the medication history, the number of dead pigs, etc. The number of shipments, future grade, and future meat quality are estimated as future shipment status. Further, the shipping status estimation unit 142 determines the number of pigs to be raised and the number of pigs to be raised as the entire target livestock market in the feed pig information of the feed pig information, and the breed of pigs managed by each farm, the number of births, and the number of births. For the day, the number of livestock, the history of feeding, the history of medication, the weight, etc., the number of households, the number of domestic pigs, and the number of pigs that are managed by individual farms as a whole of the target livestock market in the past pig information. The total number of births, the total number of births, the number of births for each birth, the feeding history, the medication history, etc. of the sows of the breed are used as the benchmarks to estimate the number of pigs that can be born in the future for the covered sows. , Future shipping time, future shipping number, and future meat quality of the relevant pork will be estimated as future shipping status.

The meat transaction status estimation unit 143 uses the future shipping status estimated by the shipping status estimation unit 142 and the market information stored in the market information DB 132 to predict the future including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time of the procurement conditions. It has the function of estimating the meat trade status. Specifically, the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time is estimated from the trend of the amount of pork supplied from each farm to the wholesale market based on the future shipment status and the carcass transaction amount in the meat transaction information. Further, the meat trade status estimation unit 143 can correct the amount of pigs supplied to the wholesale market by using the piglet trade amount included in the market information.

Further, the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can calculate the tendency of the meat price from the meat transaction information and estimate the future meat price at the desired procurement time as the future meat transaction status. This meat price tendency is shown as price elasticity calculated from the trend of the carcass transaction volume and the transaction price for each grade of meat transaction information, and the future meat price is estimated based on the price elasticity. The future meat price may be calculated by replacing it with the present value using a discounted interest rate or the like.

Further, the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can calculate a basic statistic for the estimated future meat price from the meat price tendency in the meat transaction information. As the basic statistics here, for example, as reference information when setting the application period in transactions with wholesalers etc. for a certain period based on the desired procurement time, the average value of the future meat price in the applicable period, the standard value Calculate deviations, quartiles, etc.

Further, the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 can compare the procurement condition with the future meat transaction status and generate a difference portion as difference information. Specifically, if the future meat supply amount is short of the desired procurement amount at the desired procurement time or the future meat price is higher than the desired transaction price, the difference information indicating that the procurement conditions are not met is displayed. To generate.

Further, the meat trade status estimation unit 143 can estimate the future meat trade status (future meat supply amount, future meat price), basic statistics, and difference information for each wholesale market.

The display unit 151 has a function of displaying the future meat status (future meat supply amount, future meat price), basic statistic amount, and difference information calculated by the calculation unit 141 at the desired procurement time so that the operator can check them. There is. The information that can be displayed on the display unit 151 can also be displayed on the output unit 212 of the information terminal 201 via the network NW.

The information terminal 201 is a device such as a PC, a smartphone, a tablet PC, or a mobile phone. The information terminal 201 may access the meat transaction status estimation server 101 by dedicated application software installed in the terminal. The meat transaction status estimation server 101 may be accessed using the operating environment (API (application programming interface), platform, etc.) provided by the meat transaction status estimation server 101.

The input unit 211 is, for example, a device such as a keyboard, a mouse, or a touch pad that allows a user to input and select information when operated. Further, a touch panel integrated with the output unit 212 such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display in a smartphone, a tablet, or a PC may be used. The input unit 211 may be a voice input device. The input unit 211 is not limited to a direct input by the user, and may receive an indirect input via another system.

The output unit 212 is a display device or the like that displays information and the like to the user. The display device may be independent of the information terminal 201, or may be a display device such as a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display in a smartphone or a tablet. The output unit 212 can display display data such as a meat transaction status estimation result from the meat transaction status estimation server 101.

The information terminal 201 may be integrated with the meat transaction status estimation server 101 without a network.

<Process flow>
Next, FIG. 3 shows a flowchart showing a meat transaction status estimation routine executed by the calculation unit 141 of the meat transaction status estimation server 101. Hereinafter, the meat trading situation estimation method of the present embodiment will be described based on the flowchart.

First, as step S10, the calculation part 141 acquires the procurement conditions of the meat input by the input part 211 of the information terminal 201 via the network NW (procurement condition acquisition step). As the procurement condition, for example, a grade, a desired procurement time, a desired procurement amount, and a desired procurement price are input.

In step S11, the calculating unit 141 estimates the future shipping status of the pork corresponding to the procurement conditions by the shipping status estimating unit 142 (shipping status estimating step). Specifically, the shipping status estimation unit 142 specifies the current feeding status of the pork corresponding to the procurement condition from the livestock information in the livestock information DB 121, and identifies the current feeding status of the pork corresponding to the procurement condition from the past pig information. Identify past shipping status. Then, using the identified tendency of the past shipping status as a benchmark, the future shipping time, the future shipping number, the future grade, and the future meat quality of the currently procured pork are estimated as the future shipping status. Regarding sows that meet the procurement conditions, the past shipping information is used as a benchmark to estimate the future shipping status of the sow (the number of pigs) for which the corresponding sows are expected to give birth in the future.

In step S12, the calculation unit 141 acquires the future shipping status estimated in step S11 by the meat trading status estimation unit 143 and the meat trading information stored in the market information DB 132 (market information acquisition step), Estimating the future meat trade status including future meat supply amount and future meat price for each grade in the desired procurement period of the procurement conditions (meat trade status estimation step). For example, the future meat supply amount is estimated from the trend of the carcass trade amount in the meat trade information. As for the future meat price, the price elasticity is calculated from the carcass trade volume of the meat trade information and the trend of the transaction price, and the future meat price is estimated based on the price elasticity. The future meat trading situation is estimated for each of the multiple wholesale markets. Further, the meat trade status estimation unit 143 corrects the future shipping status of the meat pig (the number of pigs) estimated in step S11 using the piglet trade amount of the piglet trade information. Specifically, for example, when the trading volume in the piglet market Mb1 fluctuates, the time-series relationship (time lag and quantitative relationship between shipments) between the piglet market Mb1 and the multiple wholesale markets before that is shown. Based on this, the number of pigs shipped to the wholesale market is estimated.

In step S13, the meat transaction status estimation unit 143 calculates a basic statistic for the estimated future meat price from the meat price tendency in the meat transaction information. Specifically, the average value, standard deviation, and quartiles of future meat prices for the applicable period based on the desired procurement time are calculated.

In step S14, the meat trading status estimation unit 143 compares the procurement conditions with the future meat trading status and generates a difference portion as difference information.

As step S15, the calculation unit 141, on the display unit 151 or the output unit 212 of the information terminal 201, the future meat transaction status estimated at Step S12, the basic statistic for the future meat price calculated at Step S13, and generated at Step S14. The difference information is displayed and the routine ends. The future meat trade status, basic statistics, and difference information will be displayed for each wholesale market.

In this way, from the future meat transaction status, basic statistic, and difference information estimated by the meat transaction status estimation server 101, whether the retailer can procure desired meat in advance and grasp the procurement cost thereof. can do. If the meat cannot be procured as desired, the retailer can accordingly consider other means such as overseas sourcing, pre-purchasing, or changing the production plan at the retailer's side.

As described above, in the meat transaction status estimation system 1 including the meat transaction status estimation server 101 according to the present embodiment, the future shipping status of the pork to the wholesale market is estimated, and the meat market in the wholesale markets Ma1, Ma2, Ma3 is estimated. The future meat supply volume at the time of desired procurement of retailers is estimated by taking into account transaction trends. As a result, the retailer can understand whether or not meat can be procured as desired, and can improve stability in future procurement implementation.

In addition, the livestock information includes information on the number of livestock pigs that are raised based on livestock statistical information as the livestock breeding status, so that the future shipping status of livestock can be estimated by grasping the overall size of the livestock market. can do.

In addition, since the information on livestock pigs bred on individual farms is included in the livestock feed information, it is possible to grasp the detailed feed status of pigs and improve the accuracy of estimating the future shipping status of livestock. be able to.

Furthermore, by acquiring the piglet trade information including the piglet trade volume as the market information, it is possible to estimate a more accurate future meat situation including the piglet trade situation in the piglet market Mb1, Mb2, Mb3. be able to.

Also, by calculating the meat price tendency (price elasticity) from the meat transaction information and estimating the future meat price at the desired procurement time as the future meat transaction status, the retailer can grasp the procurement cost and Improve the stability of the procurement implementation.

Furthermore, from the trend of meat prices, by providing the retailer with basic statistics for future meat prices, negotiations for setting the application period that incorporates market fluctuation factors when determining the application period in transactions with wholesalers etc. Is possible.

Further, by comparing the procurement conditions with the future meat transaction status and generating the difference portion as the difference information, the retailer can easily understand the factors that do not satisfy the desired procurement conditions.

Further, by estimating the future meat trade status for each meat grade, the retailer can grasp the meat procurement in more detail.

In addition, since the market information is acquired for each of a plurality of wholesale markets, it is possible to select the most suitable future meat procurement situation in the wholesale market in consideration of regional differences in transaction prices and the like.

As described above, according to the meat transaction situation estimation system 1, the meat transaction situation estimation server 101, the meat transaction situation estimation method, and the meat transaction situation estimation program according to the present embodiment, it is possible for the consumer who procures the meat to purchase the meat in the future. The stability in procurement implementation can be improved.

<Program>
FIG. 4 is a schematic block diagram showing the configuration of the computer 801. The computer 801 includes a CPU 802, a main storage device 803, an auxiliary storage device 804, and an interface 805.

Here, details of a program for realizing each function configuring the meat transaction status estimation server 101 according to the embodiment will be described.

The meat transaction status estimation server 101 is installed in the computer 801. The operation of each component of the meat transaction status estimation server 101 is stored in the auxiliary storage device 804 in the form of a program. The CPU 802 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 804, expands it in the main storage device 803, and executes the above processing according to the program. Further, the CPU 802 secures a storage area corresponding to the above-mentioned storage unit in the main storage device 803 according to the program.

Specifically, the program is, in the computer 801, a procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured, and a domestic livestock including information on a rearing status of livestock corresponding to the meat. Information and a shipping status estimation step of estimating future shipping status of the livestock using past livestock information including information on the livestock status of the livestock that has been bred in the past, and meat supply amount of the livestock in the wholesale market of the livestock Meat transaction information including information about the meat transaction information, and a market information acquisition step of acquiring market information including the future shipment status and the meat transaction information to determine the future meat transaction status including the future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time. A program for causing a computer to execute the estimated meat transaction status estimation step.

The auxiliary storage device 804 is an example of a non-transitory tangible medium. Other examples of non-transitory tangible media include magnetic disks, magneto-optical disks, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMs, semiconductor memories, etc., connected via an interface 805. Further, when this program is distributed to the computer 801 via the network NW, the computer 801 that has received the distribution may expand the program in the main storage device 803 and execute the above processing.

Further, the program may be a program for realizing some of the functions described above. Further, the program realizes the above-described function in combination with another program already stored in the auxiliary storage device 804, a so-called difference file (difference program).
May be

Although some embodiments of the present disclosure have been described above, these embodiments can be implemented in various other modes, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. It can be performed. These embodiments and modifications thereof are included in the scope of the invention and the scope thereof, and are also included in the scope of the invention described in the claims and an equivalent range thereof. Further, in the description of the embodiments, pigs have been described as an example of livestock, but the meat trade status estimation system may be applied to other livestock such as cattle, birds, and sheep.

1... Meat transaction status estimation system 101... Meat transaction status estimation server 111... Procurement condition acquisition unit 121... Livestock information DB
131... Market information acquisition unit 132... Market information DB
141... Calculation unit 142... Shipping status estimation unit 143... Meat transaction status estimation unit 151... Display unit 801... Computer 802... CPU
803... Main storage device 804... Auxiliary storage device 805... Interface

Claims (13)

A procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured,
Using the livestock information that includes information on the livestock feeding status corresponding to the meat, and past livestock information that includes information about the livestock feeding status of the livestock that was raised in the past, the shipping status estimation that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock Department,
A market information acquisition unit that acquires market information including meat trading information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the livestock wholesale market,
Using the future shipping status and the market information, a meat trading status estimation unit that estimates a future meat trading status including a future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time,
Meat transaction status estimation system with. The meat trading situation estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the livestock information includes information on the number of livestock based on livestock statistical information as the livestock breeding status. The meat trading situation estimation system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the fed livestock information includes information on the livestock raised on each farm. The meat transaction status estimation according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the market information acquisition unit acquires, as the market information, larvae trading information including information regarding a trading volume of larvae corresponding to the livestock. system. The said meat trading situation estimation part calculates the tendency of the meat price from the said market information, and estimates the future meat price in the said desired procurement time as a future meat trading situation. The meat according to any one of claims 1 to 4. Transaction status estimation system. The meat trade status estimation system according to claim 5, wherein the meat trade status estimation unit calculates a basic statistic for the future meat price from the tendency of the meat price. The meat trade status estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the meat trade status estimation unit compares the procurement condition with the future meat trade status and generates a difference part as difference information. .. The meat trading information includes information on the grade of the livestock as meat,
The shipping status estimation unit estimates future shipping status for each class,
The market information acquisition unit acquires meat trade information for each grade,
The meat trade status estimation unit estimates future meat trade status including future meat supply amount for each grade at the desired procurement time using the future shipping status for each grade and meat trade information for each grade. The meat trading situation estimation system according to any one of Items 1 to 7. The market information acquisition unit acquires the meat trading information for each of a plurality of wholesale markets,
The meat trade status estimation unit uses the future shipping status and the meat trade information to estimate a future meat trade status including a future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time for each of a plurality of wholesale markets,
The meat trading situation estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 8. The meat trading situation estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein the livestock is pig. A procurement condition acquisition unit that acquires a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured,
Using the livestock information that includes information on the livestock feeding status corresponding to the meat, and past livestock information that includes information about the livestock feeding status of the livestock that was raised in the past, the shipping status estimation that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock Department,
A market information acquisition unit that acquires market information including meat trading information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the livestock wholesale market,
Using the future shipping status and the market information, a meat trading status estimation unit that estimates a future meat trading status including a future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time,
A meat transaction status estimation server including. A procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured,
Estimated future shipping status of the livestock by using livestock information including information on the livestock status corresponding to the meat and past livestock information including information on the livestock status of the livestock that was bred in the past Steps,
A market information acquisition step of acquiring market information including meat trade information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the livestock wholesale market;
Using the future shipping status and the market information, a meat trading status estimating step of estimating a future meat trading status including a future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time,
A method of estimating the state of meat trade by executing a computer. A procurement condition acquisition step of acquiring a procurement condition including a desired procurement time of meat to be procured,
Using the livestock information that includes information on the livestock feeding status corresponding to the meat, and past livestock information that includes information about the livestock feeding status of the livestock that was raised in the past, the shipping status estimation that estimates the future shipping status of the livestock Steps,
A market information obtaining step of obtaining market information including meat trading information including information on the meat supply amount of the livestock in the livestock wholesale market;
Using the future shipping status and the market information, a meat trading status estimation step of estimating a future meat trading status including a future meat supply amount at the desired procurement time,
A computer program for estimating the state of meat trade.

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