Even with the midterm congressional elections still more than seven months away, Republican voters (70%) are more likely than Democratic voters (60%) to say it “really matters” which party gains control of Congress in this fall’s midterms. This differs from February 2018, when slightly more Democratic voters (67%) than Republican voters (65%) said it really mattered which party gained control.
Read more: Republicans More Likely Than Democrats To Say Partisan Control of Congress ‘Really Matters’
More than half of U.S. eligible voters cast a ballot in 2018, the highest turnout rate for a midterm election in recent history, according to our analysis of newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The increased turnout was particularly pronounced among Hispanics and Asians, making last year’s midterm voters the most racially and ethnically diverse ever.
The public is generally positive about the outcome of last week’s midterm elections. Yet most Americans think that neither Democratic congressional leaders nor Donald Trump will be successful in getting their policies passed into law during the next two years.
And after years of growing political divisions in Congress and the nation, the public expects little improvement in relations between Republicans and Democrats in Washington in the coming year. Most expect partisan relations will get worse or stay the same. Just 9% expect that partisan relations will improve.
Large majorities of registered voters backing Democrats (77%) and those supporting Republicans (82%) expect their party to hold a House majority after the elections. But Republicans are more bullish than Democrats about Senate control: 87% of Republican voters expect the GOP to hold a Senate majority; 62% of Democratic voters expect their party to have the majority.
Nearly a fifth (19.6%) of registered voters in the U.S. – about 37 million – cast ballots in House primary elections, according to the analysis of state election results. That may not sound like a lot, but it was a 56% increase over the 23.7 million who voted in 2014’s House primaries; turnout that year was 13.7% of registered voters.
While the battle for control of the House has gotten a lot of public and media attention, turnout rates were also substantially higher in this year’s Senate (22.2%) and gubernatorial (26.5%) primaries than in 2014 (16.6% and 18.6%, respectively), though the increases were relatively similar for both parties.
While turnout rates rose this year in both Democratic and Republican House primaries, the increase was greater on the Democratic side – up 4.6 percentage points, to 10.8% of all registered voters, versus a 1.2-point increase (to 8.7%) on the Republican side. That’s consistent with the Center’s recent survey, which found that while voter enthusiasm is relatively high among voters in both major parties, it’s somewhat higher among voters who favor Democratic over Republican candidates. Two-thirds of Democratic voters (67%) say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in past congressional elections, compared with 59% of Republican voters.
Unlike in 2014, when 2.1 million more votes were cast in Republican than in Democratic House primaries, this year Democratic races drew more votes: 20.4 million versus 16.3 million. That was nearly twice as many votes as the 10.7 million cast in 2014’s Democratic House primaries. One reason: There have been a lot more contested primaries on the Democratic side this year, and contested races tend to attract more voters.
With less than six weeks to go before the elections for Congress, voter enthusiasm is at its highest level during any midterm in more than two decades. And a record share of registered voters – 72% – say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote.
Opinions about Donald Trump also continue to be an important consideration for voters. A 60% majority views their midterm vote as an expression of opposition or support toward Trump – with far more saying their midterm vote will be “against” Trump (37%) than “for” him (23%).
The new national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted among 1,754 adults, including 1,439 registered voters, finds that the Democrats have several advantages at this point in the campaign.
Turnout has surged in the 31 states that have held their U.S. House primaries so far this year, in part because more primaries are contested. Nearly 13.6 million people have voted in Democratic primaries, up from 7.4 million at the same point in the 2014 midterm cycle. Republican turnout has also increased, but less so, climbing from 8.6 million to 10.7 million.
A record share of registered voters in America say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote in November. Six-in-ten say they consider their midterm vote as essentially one either for Donald Trump or against him.
As
of April, 59% of U.S. adults who are eligible to vote are Gen Xers, Millennials
or “post-Millennials.” Yet if past midterm election turnout patterns hold true,
these younger Americans are unlikely
to cast the majority of votes this November.