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2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see 2020 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2020 Tennessee Senate election.

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
← 2014 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2026 →
Turnout69.30% Increase[1] 33.33 pp
 
Nominee Bill Hagerty Marquita Bradshaw
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,840,926 1,040,691
Percentage 62.20% 35.16%
Hagerty:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Bradshaw:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Lamar Alexander
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Hagerty
Republican

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The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate. The 2020 U.S. presidential election and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives were also held, as well as the State Senate and State House elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for re-election on December 17, 2018.[2] The former United States Ambassador to Japan, Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin defeating his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.

In the primary, President Donald Trump endorsed Hagerty. He ended up winning the Republican nomination, defeating orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi and 13 others in the Republican primary. In the Democratic primary, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw from Memphis defeated Robin Kimbrough Hayes, as well as 3 other candidates. Nine independent candidates also appeared on the general election ballot.

Bill Hagerty outperformed Donald Trump by almost 4% during the general election. This was because he did better in suburban, exurban, and urban areas across Tennessee.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]
  • Cliff Adkins[5]
  • Natisha Brooks[5]
  • Byron Bush, dentist[6]
  • Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist[7][8]
  • Terry Dicus, attorney[8]
  • Tom Emerson Jr., Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[9]
  • George Flinn Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Administration Official, physician, engineer, businessman, and Republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[10]
  • Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[10]
  • Kent Morrell, business owner[10]
  • Glen Neal Jr., retired public servant[10]
  • John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner[10]
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[11]
  • David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran[9]
  • Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy and founder and president of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee[12]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bill Hagerty

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Manny Sethi

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		George Flinn Mark Green Bill Hagerty Bill Haslam Manny Sethi Other Undecided
JMC Analytics and Polling[50] July 18–19, 2020 600 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 36% – 32% 9% 20%
The Trafalgar Group[51] July 6–8, 2020 1,062 (LV) ±  2.92% 4% – 42% – 39% 2% 13%
Victory Phones[52][A] June 30 – July 1, 2020 800 (LV) ±  3.46% 6% – 33% – 31% – 30%
The Tarrance Group[53][B] June 28–30, 2020 651 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 46% – 29% 2%[b] 18%
Victory Phones[52][A] June 2, 2020 –[c] – – – 27% – 11% – –
July 11, 2019 Green and Haslam announce they will not run
Triton/Tennessee Star[54] April 13–16, 2019 1,003 (LV) ± 3.1% – 30% – 39% – – ≈30%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Hagerty
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Sethi
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Hagerty 331,267 50.75%
Republican Manny Sethi 257,223 39.41%
Republican George Flinn, Jr. 22,454 3.44%
Republican Jon Henry 8,104 1.24%
Republican Natisha Brooks 8,072 1.24%
Republican Byron Bush 5,420 0.83%
Republican Clifford Adkins 5,316 0.81%
Republican Terry Dicus 2,279 0.35%
Republican Tom Emerson, Jr. 2,252 0.35%
Republican David Schuster 2,045 0.31%
Republican John Osborne 1,877 0.29%
Republican Roy Dale Cope 1,791 0.27%
Republican Kent Morrell 1,769 0.27%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 1,622 0.25%
Republican Glen Neal, Jr. 1,233 0.19%
Total votes 652,724 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in the primary

[edit]
  • Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate[58]
  • Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and Christian minister[59]
  • James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[3][60]
  • Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon[61]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

[edit]
  • Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist, and conservationist[62]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant[63]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
James Mackler

Politicians

Organizations

Marquita Bradshaw

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Bradshaw
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hayes
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Mackler
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Davis
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Mackler/Davis tie
  •   20–30%
Democratic primary results[66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 117,962 35.51%
Democratic Robin Kimbrough Hayes 88,492 26.64%
Democratic James Mackler 78,966 23.77%
Democratic Gary G. Davis 30,758 9.26%
Democratic Mark Pickrell 16,045 4.83%
Total votes 332,223 100.00%

Independents

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Yomi Faparusi, physician, attorney, researcher, and former Republican candidate for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2014 and 2016[9]
  • Jeffrey Grunau, activist[9]
  • Ronnie Henley,[9]
  • Dean Hill, US veteran, former federal employee, and activist[9]
  • Steven Hooper[9]
  • Aaron James[9]
  • Elizabeth McLeod, conservative activist[9]
  • Eric William Stansberry[9]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Tom Kovach, attorney[79][9]
  • Kacey Morgan, freelancer and operations director (endorsed Marquita Bradshaw) (remained on ballot)[80]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[81] Safe R October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[82] Safe R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] Safe R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[84] Safe R November 30, 2020
Politico[85] Safe R November 2, 2020
RCP[86] Likely R October 23, 2020
DDHQ[87] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[88] Safe R November 2, 2020
Economist[89] Safe R November 2, 2020

Endorsements

[edit]
Bill Hagerty (R)

Federal officials

Governors

State officials

Local officials

  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis[94]
  • Sandy Still[94]
  • Cary Vaughn[94]

Individuals

Organizations

Marquita Bradshaw (D)

Federal officials

Notable Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Hagerty (R) 		Marquita
Bradshaw (D) 		Other Undecided
Swayable[118] October 23 – November 1, 2020 431 (LV) ± 6.2% 61% 39% – –
Cygnal[119] October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 56% 36% 1%[d] 7%
Hypothetical polling

with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Hagerty (R) 		James
Mackler (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[120] January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 55% 33% 12%

with Manny Sethi and James Mackler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Manny
Sethi (R) 		James
Mackler (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[120] January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 46% 35% 19%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Cygnal[119] October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 58% 38% 4%
East Tennessee State University[121] April 22 – May 1, 2020 536 (LV) – 43% 26% 31%[e]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee[122]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Hagerty 1,840,926 62.20% +0.33%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 1,040,691 35.16% +3.29%
Independent Elizabeth McLeod 16,652 0.56% N/A
Independent Yomi Faparusi 10,727 0.36% N/A
Independent Stephen Hooper 9,609 0.32% N/A
Independent Kacey Morgan (withdrawn) 9,598 0.32% N/A
Independent Ronnie Henley 8,478 0.30% N/A
Independent Aaron James 7,203 0.29% N/A
Independent Eric William Stansberry 6,781 0.23% N/A
Independent Dean Hill 4,872 0.16% N/A
Independent Jeffrey Grunau 4,160 0.14% N/A
Write-in 64 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 2,959,761 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County[123] Bill Hagerty
Republican		 Marquita Bradshaw
Democratic		 Other votes Total
votes
% # % # % #
Anderson 66.54% 22,988 31.32% 10,820 2.14% 740 34,548
Bedford 76.68% 13,920 20.98% 3,808 2.34% 425 18,153
Benton 78.22% 5,462 19.16% 1,338 2.62% 183 6,983
Bledsoe 81.49% 4,460 16.41% 898 2.10% 115 5,473
Blount 73.27% 47,391 24.66% 15,950 2.07% 1,338 64,679
Bradley 77.62% 34,262 19.74% 8,716 2.64% 1,165 44,143
Campbell 82.53% 11,610 15.45% 2,173 2.02% 284 14,067
Cannon 79.61% 4,904 17.94% 1,105 2.45% 151 6,160
Carroll 77.78% 8,899 19.98% 2,286 2.24% 256 11,441
Carter 80.02% 18,593 17.76% 4,127 2.22% 514 23,234
Cheatham 72.19% 14,094 25.40% 4,959 2.41% 470 19,523
Chester 80.22% 5,951 17.59% 1,305 2.19% 162 7,418
Claiborne 82.26% 10,116 15.95% 1,962 1.79% 220 12,298
Clay 78.29% 2,525 19.10% 616 2.61% 84 3,225
Cocke 81.13% 11,284 16.01% 2,227 2.86% 397 13,908
Coffee 74.38% 17,607 22.03% 5,215 3.59% 849 23,671
Crockett 77.42% 4,455 20.68% 1,190 1.90% 109 5,754
Cumberland 78.97% 24,412 19.11% 5,908 1.92% 593 30,913
Davidson 35.20% 106,664 61.04% 184,972 3.76% 11,402 303,038
Decatur 80.87% 4,075 16.21% 817 2.92% 147 5,039
DeKalb 78.01% 6,162 19.29% 1,524 2.70% 213 7,899
Dickson 72.88% 17,214 23.52% 5,556 3.60% 851 23,621
Dyer 78.34% 11,237 19.06% 2,734 2.60% 372 14,343
Fayette 70.67% 15,414 26.67% 5,818 2.66% 579 21,811
Fentress 85.37% 7,066 12.78% 1,056 1.85% 155 8,277
Franklin 74.02% 13,490 24.06% 4,384 1.92% 350 18,224
Gibson 73.53% 15,583 22.97% 4,867 3.50% 742 21,192
Giles 74.70% 9,313 22.68% 2,828 2.62% 326 12,467
Grainger 84.90% 8,131 13.27% 1,271 1.83% 175 9,577
Greene 79.82% 21,904 17.51% 4,804 2.67% 734 27,442
Grundy 81.06% 4,373 16.46% 888 2.48% 134 5,395
Hamblen 77.30% 18,183 20.46% 4,813 2.24% 528 23,524
Hamilton 56.29% 95,105 41.79% 70,608 1.92% 3,252 168,965
Hancock 86.39% 2,159 12.04% 301 1.57% 39 2,499
Hardeman 58.68% 5,377 37.67% 3,452 3.65% 334 9,163
Hardin 82.95% 9,221 14.38% 1,599 2.67% 296 11,116
Hawkins 82.06% 19,123 15.66% 3,649 2.28% 533 23,305
Haywood 46.14% 3,297 51.74% 3,697 2.12% 152 7,146
Henderson 82.73% 9,585 15.48% 1,793 1.79% 208 11,586
Henry 75.40% 10,595 21.16% 2,973 3.44% 484 14,052
Hickman 76.90% 7,284 20.31% 1,924 2.79% 264 9,472
Houston 72.85% 2,586 22.82% 810 4.33% 154 3,550
Humphreys 73.39% 5,752 22.77% 1,785 3.84% 301 7,838
Jackson 77.47% 3,837 19.95% 988 2.58% 128 4,953
Jefferson 79.80% 18,024 17.87% 4,035 2.33% 527 22,586
Johnson 82.41% 6,058 15.17% 1,115 2.42% 178 7,351
Knox 59.27% 128,662 39.09% 84,847 1.64% 3,570 217,079
Lake 70.52% 1,361 25.54% 493 3.94% 76 1,930
Lauderdale 65.44% 5,553 31.50% 2,673 3.06% 260 8,486
Lawrence 81.69% 14,270 15.85% 2,768 2.46% 431 17,469
Lewis 79.27% 4,234 18.52% 989 2.21% 118 5,341
Lincoln 79.55% 12,019 17.50% 2,644 2.95% 446 15,109
Loudon 76.40% 21,890 21.15% 6,061 2.45% 702 28,653
Macon 85.15% 7,522 12.50% 1,104 2.35% 208 8,834
Madison 57.70% 24,065 40.24% 16,781 2.06% 860 41,706
Marion 74.54% 9,517 23.15% 2,956 2.31% 295 12,768
Marshall 75.17% 10,650 22.26% 3,154 2.57% 364 14,168
Maury 68.49% 31,516 29.46% 13,557 2.05% 945 46,018
McMinn 80.28% 17,777 17.65% 3,908 2.07% 458 22,143
McNairy 80.77% 8,839 16.12% 1,764 3.11% 341 10,944
Meigs 80.62% 4,198 16.94% 882 2.44% 127 5,207
Monroe 80.86% 16,331 17.05% 3,444 2.09% 422 20,197
Montgomery 56.54% 41,342 39.21% 28,674 4.25% 3,105 73,121
Moore 82.04% 2,827 15.18% 523 2.78% 96 3,446
Morgan 84.51% 6,715 13.67% 1,086 1.82% 145 7,946
Obion 79.58% 10,236 17.47% 2,247 2.95% 380 12,863
Overton 79.35% 7,351 18.39% 1,704 2.26% 209 9,264
Perry 81.68% 2,617 16.14% 517 2.18% 70 3,204
Pickett 81.15% 2,264 17.03% 475 1.82% 51 2,790
Polk 81.25% 6,620 17.19% 1,401 1.56% 127 8,148
Putnam 71.77% 23,031 25.76% 8,268 2.47% 792 32,091
Rhea 81.62% 10,621 16.14% 2,100 2.24% 291 13,012
Roane 75.21% 19,038 21.56% 5,458 3.23% 817 25,313
Robertson 73.94% 23,877 23.32% 7,530 2.74% 886 32,293
Rutherford 58.11% 80,610 38.77% 53,782 3.12% 4,323 138,715
Scott 87.49% 7,307 10.09% 843 2.42% 202 8,352
Sequatchie 80.95% 5,598 16.67% 1,153 2.38% 164 6,915
Sevier 78.52% 33,531 18.58% 7,934 2.90% 1,238 42,703
Shelby 36.12% 135,043 61.05% 228,280 2.83% 10,600 373,923
Smith 78.77% 6,610 17.79% 1,493 3.44% 288 8,391
Stewart 79.07% 4,697 18.10% 1,075 2.83% 168 5,940
Sullivan 76.46% 55,506 21.64% 15,710 1.90% 1,375 72,591
Sumner 70.70% 63,031 26.78% 23,878 2.52% 2,242 89,151
Tipton 75.07% 19,554 22.21% 5,784 2.72% 709 26,047
Trousdale 75.28% 2,741 22.25% 810 2.47% 90 3,641
Unicoi 79.32% 6,267 18.34% 1,449 2.34% 185 7,901
Union 83.67% 6,365 14.29% 1,087 2.04% 155 7,606
Van Buren 79.93% 2,155 17.36% 468 2.71% 73 2,696
Warren 73.68% 10,998 22.85% 3,410 3.47% 518 14,926
Washington 68.20% 39,516 29.37% 17,021 2.43% 1,408 57,945
Wayne 86.75% 5,351 10.91% 673 2.34% 144 6,168
Weakley 75.90% 10,131 20.12% 2,686 3.98% 531 13,348
White 80.96% 9,475 17.02% 1,992 2.02% 237 11,704
Williamson 66.21% 91,155 31.55% 43,432 2.24% 3,080 137,667
Wilson 69.44% 50,597 27.53% 20,059 3.03% 2,209 72,865

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Hagerty won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[124]

District Hagerty Bradshaw Representative
1st 77% 21% Phil Roe
Diana Harshbarger
2nd 66% 32% Tim Burchett
3rd 67% 31% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 69% 29% Scott DesJarlais
5th 39% 57% Jim Cooper
6th 74% 24% John W. Rose
7th 69% 28% Mark E. Green
8th 68% 30% David Kustoff
9th 21% 76% Steve Cohen

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. ^ Not yet released
  4. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  2. ^ Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2020". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. ^ a b Burgess Everett [@burgessev] (December 17, 2018). "HOLY COW Lamar Alexander: "I will not be a candidate for re-election to the United States Senate in 2020"" (Tweet). Retrieved December 17, 2018 – via Twitter.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i Allison, Natalie (December 17, 2018). "Who will succeed Lamar Alexander as Tennessee's next U.S. Senator?". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved December 17, 2018.
  4. ^ Sher, Andy (July 12, 2019). "Trump announces, endorses Bill Hagerty bid for Tennessee U.S. Senate seat". Chattanooga Times Free Press. Archived from the original on July 12, 2019. Retrieved July 12, 2019.
  5. ^ a b "Early voting begins today". Oak Ridger. July 17, 2020. Archived from the original on August 5, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2020.
  6. ^ "Byron Bush for Tennessee Senate". Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
  7. ^ "CopeTN2020 – TN Candidate for US Senate 2020". Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 27, 2020.
  8. ^ a b "State Republicans Dump Basil Marceaux, Others". The Chattanoogan. April 16, 2020. Archived from the original on April 28, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Ebert, Joel (April 10, 2020). "See who's running for statewide, federal and legislative offices in Tennessee in 2020". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  10. ^ a b c d e f "Tennessee Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Archived from the original on July 11, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  11. ^ "Aaron Pettigrew". Ballotpedia. Archived from the original on June 9, 2019. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  12. ^ "Nashville trauma surgeon Manny Sethi launches 2020 U.S. Senate bid". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved June 3, 2019.
  13. ^ Humphrey, Scott (April 16, 2020). "J.J. PRESLEY REMOVED FROM REPUBLICAN AUGUST PRIMARY BALLOT FOR U.S. SENATE SEAT". 1057 News. Archived from the original on May 1, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  14. ^ "Johnny Presley FEC Campaign Finance Data". FEC. Archived from the original on March 26, 2020. Retrieved February 10, 2020.
  15. ^ "Local doctor announces bid for U.S. Senate". WBIR. July 25, 2019. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  16. ^ "Larry Crim for U.S. Senate (R-TN) 2020" (PDF). FEC. August 26, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  17. ^ Whetstone, Tyler (July 25, 2019). "Knoxville doctor running for U.S. Senate says 'political correctness' is a cancer". Knoxville News Sentinel. Archived from the original on July 25, 2019. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
  18. ^ "Josh Gapp for Congress | TN-01". Archived from the original on July 25, 2019. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
  19. ^ Elliott, Stephen (April 5, 2019). "Country artist running for U.S. Senate". Nashville Post. Archived from the original on April 6, 2019. Retrieved April 6, 2019.
  20. ^ Joseph, Cameron (December 17, 2018). "Sen. Lamar Alexander Says He Won't Run For Reelection In 2020". Talking Points Memo. Archived from the original on December 17, 2018.
  21. ^ a b Ebert, Joel (July 11, 2019). "With Bill Haslam opting against 2020 US Senate run, other potential candidates weigh decisions". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on October 14, 2021. Retrieved July 12, 2019.
  22. ^ a b Ebert, Joel (December 17, 2018). "Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander will not seek re-election in 2020". Daily Local News. Archived from the original on December 18, 2018. Retrieved December 17, 2018.
  23. ^ Weaver, Al (December 17, 2018). "Bob Corker says 'no' 14 times to running for Lamar Alexander's Senate seat". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on December 21, 2018. Retrieved December 20, 2018.
  24. ^ a b Pathé, Simone (December 17, 2018). "Who Might Run for Alexander's Tennessee Senate Seat in 2020?". Roll Call. Archived from the original on December 17, 2018. Retrieved December 17, 2018.
  25. ^ "Fleischmann announces $1.4 million raised in re-election campaign so far". Chattanooga Times Free Press. July 16, 2019. Archived from the original on July 17, 2019. Retrieved August 24, 2019.
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Official campaign websites

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